World Bank warns Nigeria over unplanned urban growth

The World Bank has warned that unplanned urban expansion could raise infrastructure costs, undermine productivity and constrain job creation in Nigeria. It urged governments across Sub-Saharan Africa to invest in city planning before a projected surge in urban populations.

The warning is contained in the report, "Sub-Saharan Africa's Urban Awakening: Catalyzing Economic Growth and Job Creation", released on Thursday. The bank projected that Lagos's population would rise by more than 25 per cent from 12.8 million in 2025 to 16.2 million by 2050. Lagos would, however, lose its position as Sub-Saharan Africa's most populous city to Luanda in Angola.

Onitsha, Kano face pressure

Onitsha's population is projected to increase from 5.6 million in 2025 to 8.7 million by 2050, adding pressure on Nigeria's urban infrastructure. Kano is expected to rise from 4.8 million to about 6.3 million and will likely drop out of the list.

The World Bank warned that without adequate planning, population growth could produce sprawling settlements disconnected from jobs, markets and essential services. It said this was especially likely on city outskirts, where informal development often outpaces infrastructure provision.

"However, as things currently stand, SSA's cities are underprepared for this rapid expansion, raising the risk that urban development on their peripheries, driven mainly by informal processes, will only serve to further replicate existing dysfunctional patterns of fragmented and irregular land use that undermine productivity and therefore more and better job creation," the report stated.

Growth beyond city boundaries

The report projected that the land area occupied by cities across Sub-Saharan Africa would expand by 90 per cent between 2025 and 2050. It said 71 per cent of urban population growth is expected to occur beyond existing city boundaries.

"The reality is that most of the region's future urban population growth will happen beyond the boundaries of these cities, and it is therefore beyond these boundaries that SSA's urban future will be most determined," it stated.

To address the challenge, the World Bank recommended planning road networks and protecting rights of way before settlements spread. It also called for land-pooling and subdivision reforms and early investment in basic infrastructure. These measures, it said, would help governments guide urban expansion, improve connectivity and create conditions for businesses to grow and generate jobs.

Kano market offers lesson

The report identified Kano as an example of how targeted infrastructure investment could strengthen trade and employment. The city sits along major north-south and east-west routes, linking agricultural producers to markets for cereals, legumes and other food crops.

The bank highlighted Dawanau International Grains Market in Dawakin Tofa Local Government Area of Kano State as a major storage and trading hub serving the state and neighbouring countries. It said rehabilitation of internal access roads and drainage, installation of solar streetlights and improvements to truck movement and safety had strengthened the market's trading and logistics operations. Extended trading hours also supported market activities.

But the bank said further investment remained necessary. "Infrastructure gaps remain, and further investments are needed to improve truck access, circulation, and safety," it stated. It identified opportunities to expand storage, packaging and basic agro-processing around the market, which could increase the value of agricultural products and create additional jobs.

The report stressed that Nigeria needs to combine better urban planning with targeted infrastructure investment. This would help ensure that expanding cities support productivity, trade and employment rather than deepen existing infrastructure deficits.

For Nigerian businesses, the warning points to higher logistics and infrastructure costs if cities expand without planning. For consumers, unplanned settlements can mean longer commutes and weaker access to markets and essential services.