World Bank projects 4.4% average growth for Nigeria through 2028

Nigeria's economy is expected to grow by an average of 4.4% a year through 2028, the World Bank said in its latest Nigeria Development Update, with inflation and poverty declining if the government sustains reforms and improves service delivery.

The report was presented in Abuja on Thursday, October 8.

Reforms lift state revenues

The lender said reforms, including the removal of petrol subsidies and changes to the exchange rate, had boosted revenues available to state governments. That has created scope for higher spending on infrastructure, education and healthcare.

State revenues rose about 93% in real terms between 2023 and 2025, the World Bank said. It urged states to improve spending efficiency and invest more in human capital to raise living standards and reduce poverty.

Growth driven by services and agriculture

Nigeria's economy grew 4.2% in the first half of 2026, up from 3.9% in 2025, driven mainly by services and agriculture. Inflation is projected to ease to around 12% by 2028 from around 15%.

Taiwo Oyedele, minister of finance and coordinating minister of the economy, said at the event where the report was presented that the reforms had helped stabilise the economy and put it on a path to faster growth.

Oyedele said Nigeria's economy was growing faster than its population, which should help reduce poverty if sustained. He added that the government's focus was on private sector led and job rich growth.

What it means for the economy

The World Bank's projection rests on two conditions: that the government keeps the reforms in place and that states spend better. Higher state revenues and slower inflation would ease cost pressures on households and businesses, while faster growth than population would lift incomes if the trend holds.