World Bank projects 4.4% average growth for Nigeria through 2028

The World Bank said on Thursday that Nigeria's economy is expected to grow by an average of 4.4% a year through 2028. It said inflation and poverty could decline if the government sustains reforms and improves service delivery.

The projection hinges on the reform path already taken, including the removal of petrol subsidies and changes to the exchange rate. The World Bank said those steps have boosted revenues available to state governments, creating scope for higher spending on infrastructure, education and healthcare.

Growth driven by services and agriculture

The World Bank said Nigeria's economy grew, driven mainly by services and agriculture. It expects inflation to ease from approximately 15%. The inflation outlook rests on the same reform and policy assumptions.

Oyedele: reforms stabilising the economy

Taiwo Oyedele, Nigeria's minister of finance and coordinating minister of the economy, spoke at an event where the report was presented. He said the reforms had helped stabilise the economy and put it on a path to faster growth. Oyedele said Nigeria's economy was growing faster than its population. That, he said, should help reduce poverty if sustained. He added that the government's focus was on private-sector-led and job-rich growth.

State revenues and spending efficiency

The World Bank said state revenues rose, but urged states to improve spending efficiency. It also called for more investment in human capital to raise living standards and reduce poverty. The bank's outlook assumes the government stays with the reforms and improves service delivery. If that happens, average growth of 4.4% a year through 2028 could come with lower inflation and less poverty.

For Nigerian businesses and consumers, the projection points to a slower price spiral if the inflation forecast holds. It also suggests state governments may have more fiscal room to spend on infrastructure, education and healthcare, though the quality of that spending will determine whether the gains reach households.