Why Kunsela, Ologolo, Gbagada and other parts of Lagos keep flooding

Residents of Kunsela Road in Ikate waded through knee-deep floodwater on a rain-soaked morning in Lagos as motorists cautiously steered through murky water, hoping their engines would not stall. In Shogunle, Oshodi, Osila Obarijima watched muddy floodwater carrying refuse and debris rush through her residential street from her first-floor apartment, as the water rose above the tyres of parked vehicles.

The scenes were repeated across parts of Gbagada, Ikorodu Road, and Ajiran during the last days of June and the first days of July, as days of intense rainfall submerged roads, disrupted businesses and left many residents counting their losses. For many Lagos residents, flooding has become an all-too-familiar consequence of the rainy season, yet the latest incidents have revived a familiar question: Why does Lagos continue to flood?

Experts blame lost wetlands and concrete surfaces

According to experts who spoke with Nairametrics, the flooding points to decades of planning, environmental, and infrastructure choices that have altered how Lagos absorbs and drains stormwater. Urban planner Tpl. Niyi Aderohunmu said the replacement of wetlands and mangroves with residential and commercial developments has significantly reduced Lagos' natural capacity to absorb stormwater.

“From an urban planning perspective, the replacement of Lagos' wetlands and mangroves with residential and commercial developments has been one of the most significant drivers of the city's increasing flood risk,” Aderohunmu told Nairametrics. He explained that wetlands once functioned as natural “sponges” that absorbed rainfall and released it gradually, but have now largely been replaced by impervious concrete surfaces that generate faster and higher volumes of runoff.

Geographer Abeeb Babajide Ajagbe described wetlands and mangroves as “natural flood infrastructure,” noting that their removal has left Lagos with little capacity to absorb rainfall. He argued that beyond environmental loss, the issue reflects governance failures, pointing to planning decisions, approvals, and enforcement gaps that have enabled development in sensitive flood zones. “Every building that sits on the Lekki corridor had a permit or should have a permit and a transaction must have occurred. The destruction of natural flood infrastructure is the cumulative result of planning decisions that prioritised short-term development revenue over long-term flood resilience,” he explained.

Missing water storage infrastructure

Environmental resource management expert Gbenga Oloniniran echoed this view, saying unregulated urban expansion has removed natural barriers that previously reduced flood impact. He said the absence of wetlands and mangroves has made low-lying areas more susceptible to fast-moving surface runoff during prolonged rainfall.

However, independent researcher Tonami Playman argued that Lagos' flooding cannot be fully explained by environmental change alone. He said the core challenge is the absence of large-scale water storage infrastructure capable of buffering excess rainfall during extreme weather events. “The flooding in Lagos can be attributed to the coastal geography, urbanization, loss of wetlands, but to attribute it to climate change is an easy way to escape responsibility. The rainfall data for Lagos is not historically unusual,” Playman argued.

He added, “The most critical cause is lack of sufficient flood mitigation infrastructure. Just building drainage is not enough to mitigate flash floods. You need water storage infrastructure to act as a buffer.” According to him, even well-maintained drainage systems are insufficient without reservoirs, tunnels and storage systems similar to those used in cities such as Tokyo, Chicago and Kuala Lumpur. He noted that Lagos' current approach remains heavily focused on drainage expansion rather than long-term flood storage infrastructure.

What the Lagos government says

The Lagos State Government says the recent flooding reflects a combination of the city's natural geography, climate change and long-term environmental changes that have reduced its capacity to cope with heavy rainfall. It also situates the issue within a regional context, noting that coastal cities such as Accra, Lomé and parts of Côte d'Ivoire have also experienced similar flooding, suggesting the challenge is not unique to Lagos.

Speaking during a Nairametrics X Space titled “Flooding in Lagos: Beyond the Rain. What Must Change,” the Commissioner for Environment and Water Resources, Tokunbo Wahab, said Lagos' coastal location makes flooding difficult to avoid. He noted that about one-third of the city is on water, and the state sits on a coastal plain that naturally receives runoff from upstream areas.

For residents and businesses across Lagos, the recurring floods mean disrupted commutes, damaged goods, and higher costs. Until the state moves beyond drainage expansion and invests in large-scale water storage infrastructure, the rainy season will continue to bring losses to homes and shops in low-lying areas.