Indian Rupee Seen Rangebound as RBI Minutes Take Centre Stage
By Aboki Forex —
The Indian rupee is expected to trade steadily this week, with the Reserve Bank of India's intervention limiting appetite for bearish bets. The currency ended Friday at 95.4250 per U.S. dollar, a marginal weekly loss despite oil price volatility and uncertainty over the U.S.-Iran conflict.
Traders expect the rupee to hold within a 95.00 to 95.50 band this week. Foreign portfolio flows, hedging activity and demand for foreign-exchange deposits will likely drive direction. Markets are also awaiting the minutes of the RBI's latest policy meeting, due Thursday, for fresh signals on interest rates and liquidity.
RBI's FX Swap Facility Closing Early
The RBI has decided to close a discounted foreign-exchange swap facility for banks one month earlier than planned. The facility, used to hedge overseas deposits, will now shut on August 31. That change has drawn attention from traders, with some expecting overseas clients to accelerate FX deposit bookings before the deadline.
RBI policy measures, including the FX deposit swap window, have attracted nearly $57 billion. The central bank's active role in managing rupee liquidity has reduced the incentive for traders to bet against the currency, supporting the steady trading range.
Bond Yields and Inflation Forecasts
Indian government bonds are expected to stay rangebound, with the benchmark 10-year yield centred around 6.75%. The yield ended Friday at 6.7578%, after falling seven basis points the previous week. Traders see the yield trading between 6.72% and 6.80% until the RBI minutes provide the next major nudge.
The RBI left interest rates unchanged at its latest meeting. Most analysts expect the central bank either to begin a shallow rate-hiking cycle in December or to hold rates through 2026. The RBI also revised its core inflation forecast down by 40 basis points to 4.3% for the current fiscal year, while cutting its headline inflation projection by 10 basis points to 5.0%. It said it would provide sufficient liquidity to the system.
With the August 31 swap facility deadline and the policy minutes on the horizon, traders will be watching for any shift in the RBI's stance on rupee stability and bond market conditions.