Trump Says White House Still Weighing US Diesel Export Ban as Global Prices Climb
By Aboki Forex —
US President Donald Trump says the White House is still considering a ban on diesel exports, as fuel prices climb ahead of November midterm elections. He told a Fox News reporter on Sunday that the idea is being looked at "very seriously".
"That can oftentimes lead to a little bit of an increase on gasoline for cars, so we're looking at it very seriously. We may do it," Trump said, speaking at the Presidents Cup golf tournament in Illinois.
What is on the table
Trump has previously backed an export ban as retail diesel prices hit fresh records. Earlier this month he said a decision would be made quickly "one way or another".
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright has said the White House is considering restrictions rather than an outright ban. Politico reported last week that the administration was preparing a plan to ban diesel exports for 90 days.
The US is the world's largest diesel exporter, so an outright ban would hit global markets hard. Average US diesel prices were around $6.50 a gallon on Friday, according to AAA, up sharply from a year ago and just below the record high of $6.53 set on Sept. 22.
Prices have soared amid hostilities between the US and Iran, and between Russia and Ukraine, with both conflicts disrupting vital oil and fuel trade routes.
Analysts warn of a backlash
Morgan Stanley commodity strategists said a US export restriction would likely lower US diesel prices at first, "but with potentially adverse reactions downstream".
"Not only would diesel prices be higher globally, but there could be a feedback loop to US gasoline prices as refinery runs adjust," the strategists said in a note published Thursday.
Benedict George, head of European product pricing at Argus Media, said any US restriction would likely push European diesel prices and premiums against crude "to a new unprecedented level". The US has supplied about half of Europe's diesel imports over the last couple of months.
"It's really important to be clear that there is no measure yet and it's very unclear whether there will be a measure at all and what the measure will be even if there is a vision," George told CNBC.
He said oil traders in Europe mostly doubt the US will restrict exports, given how hard the move would be for American oil companies. Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries have made diesel "the biggest problem for the global oil system, whereas before it was one of several very big problems", he added.
On the duration of the crunch, George said a US measure would likely be short term, "two or three months at an absolute most". On Russia and Ukraine, he said nobody knows, with nothing so far resolving the conflict or the semi-closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The pushback at home
The American Petroleum Institute contested the idea when Trump first appeared to back it last week. API CEO Mike Sommers said "restricting US energy exports would only compound the problem, exacerbating refining challenges and ultimately hurting consumers".
He added that the answer is "more supply and more flexibility, not new restrictions that risk making a difficult situation worse".
Trump has also urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to stop targeting Russian oil refineries, saying the attacks are "hurting the world". Ukraine has characterised Russian refineries as legitimate military targets.
In the US, high diesel prices are straining farmers, agricultural workers, drivers and households ahead of the November midterms.
What it means for Nigeria
Nigeria imports its refined diesel, so a global crunch of this kind feeds straight into landing costs. Diesel drives generators, trucks, factories and telecom towers. If US supply tightens further, Nigerian businesses should expect higher energy and logistics bills, and any relief will depend on how long the restriction lasts, if it happens at all.