Trump's New Tariff Wall Reshapes Global Winners and Losers

The latest US tariff adjustments under President Donald Trump are redrawing the map of global trade, with some countries gaining ground while others face new pressures.

The Philippines stands to benefit significantly. US goods imports from the Philippines hit $7.7 billion in the first four months of this year, a 51% jump from the same period in 2025. The new tariff structure could cut its rate by nearly seven percentage points from April 2025 levels.

South Africa, which was slapped with a 30% tariff in April 2025 over allegations of discrimination against white Afrikaners, now expects a rate of 12.5% after a forced labour investigation concludes. But the damage is already visible. South African goods shipments to the US through April totalled $3.5 billion, down 56% from a year earlier.

Several smaller trading partners are set to benefit. Pakistan's tariffs will drop 19 percentage points to 10%, down from 29%. Myanmar, hit with a 44% duty in April 2025, could see rates fall to between zero and 2% on most goods. Laos and Lesotho are in similar positions.

These shifts could open new opportunities for multinationals to move supply chains into lower tariff countries.

Singapore is a notable loser. The city state did not receive a country specific emergency tariff in April 2025 but was hit with a 10% duty applied to all others. That rate is now at risk of rising. Singapore faces a 12.5% tariff on forced labour and an expected additional tariff from an excess capacity probe.

Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at The Hinrich Foundation, said Singaporeans are keenly aware of the problem. They were sitting at a comfortable 10% and now face a worse position. The situation is made tougher for American importers because Singapore is one of the world's busiest transshipment hubs. Raw materials enter its ports and industrial zones and are exported as finished products, complicating tariff compliance.

Canada appears better positioned at first glance. Tariffs on imports are lower than in April 2025, with key exemptions for USMCA qualified goods. But industry specific tariffs on metals have strained Canadian industry. Trump regularly threatens to widen these measures.

Final details of the new tariff wall remain unclear, but the winners and losers lineup is already taking shape.