US Treasury yields climb to multiyear highs as oil prices and inflation fears bite
By Aboki Forex —
US Treasury yields pushed higher on Monday as pressure on global government bonds resumed, driven by elevated oil prices and persistent inflation worries. The 10-year Treasury note, the benchmark that guides mortgage borrowing, auto loans and credit card debt, rose more than 5 basis points to 5.234%.
The longer-dated 30-year Treasury bond yield, which is more sensitive to geopolitical risk, added almost 6 basis points to 5.56%. The 2-year note, which typically tracks short-term Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, moved up more than 5 basis points to 4.918%. One basis point equals 0.01%, and yields move opposite to prices.
Global bond pressure resumes
Bond yields rose elsewhere too, with anxiety over global government debt and sticky inflation still weighing on investors. The moves follow a volatile week for Treasurys. On Thursday, the benchmark 10-year note yield reached its highest level since June 2007 before easing. The 30-year Treasury bond yield touched levels not seen since 2004.
Global oil prices stayed elevated on Monday, trading around $92 a barrel, adding to the inflation headache for central banks and keeping upward pressure on borrowing costs.
Data-heavy week ahead
Investors are now looking to a flurry of fresh US economic data releases this week. The core PCE index and the latest quarterly GDP growth print come first, followed later in the week by the monthly nonfarm payrolls report and the unemployment rate.
Before those, August's JOLTS report is due on Tuesday. It is forecast to show job openings dipped slightly to 7.24 million month over month, from 7.27 million in July.
What it means for the naira
Rising US Treasury yields raise the return on dollar assets, which tends to pull capital away from emerging and frontier markets. For Nigeria, that combination of a stronger dollar pull and costly offshore borrowing can pressure the naira and raise the cost of dollar funding for banks and corporates sourcing credit abroad. A hot payrolls or PCE print would sharpen that pressure. A soft one would ease it.