Nigeria's Economy Grew 4.43% in Q2 2026, But the Real Test Is Still Ahead
By Aboki Forex —
Nigeria's real GDP grew 4.43% in the second quarter of 2026, with services, agriculture and industry all contributing to the expansion. But with the population estimated to have grown about 2.4% over the same period, real GDP per person rose by only roughly 2%, a far smaller improvement than the headline number suggests.
The growth was also broad. Of the 46 economic activities the National Bureau of Statistics tracks, 30 expanded, 11 grew more slowly than a year earlier, and five contracted.
Services still the main engine
Services remained the largest contributor to real GDP at 56.62%, followed by agriculture at 26.15% and industry at 17.23%. Within those broad categories, trade contributed 17.93%, crop production 17.66%, real estate 12.71% and telecommunications 9.72%.
That spread matters. The quarter's expansion was not driven by one part of the economy. Services stayed the main engine, but agriculture and industry pulled their weight too, even if the gains were not shared equally across every sector.
Oil is small in GDP, large for revenue
Oil and gas make up less than 5% of real GDP, but the sector still carries outsized weight because it provides much of government revenue and foreign exchange. Crude output averaged around 1.72 million barrels a day in Q2 2026, the highest in two years, and oil prices were climbing at the same time.
Refining had a standout quarter, growing 43.94% year-on-year in Q2 2026, up from 37.46% in Q1 and well ahead of the 15.78% recorded in Q2 2025. Higher global crude prices raise the cost of imported refined products, making domestic refining relatively more attractive. The more refining substitutes for imports, the more value stays inside the domestic economy.
Upstream crude oil and natural gas output grew 7.31% year-on-year in Q2 2026, against 20.46% a year earlier. That slowdown is largely a base effect, since oil production had already recovered strongly in 2025 from a weak 2024. Output did not fall. Upstream activity rose 10.91% quarter-on-quarter.
The non-oil economy carries the growth
The non-oil sector accounted for 95.84% of real GDP and grew 4.31% year-on-year, its fastest pace on record. Oil production and refining offered useful support, but most of the expansion came from outside crude oil. An economy growing through services, agriculture, manufacturing, trade, telecoms and real estate rests on a broader foundation than one leaning mainly on oil.
Whether the momentum holds into the next quarter depends on whether these sectors keep pace. Agriculture should get a lift as the harvest season progresses, while services, trade and telecommunications will matter just as much. Oil output and refining should stay supportive if production remains elevated and domestic refining keeps expanding.
Business conditions bear watching. Sustained improvement in investment and production would be more convincing than a single GDP print. The main risk is that pressure on production costs, foreign exchange conditions or business confidence could slow the pace of expansion from here.