GDP growth hits 4.43% in Q2 2026 as FG targets $1trn economy by 2030
By Aboki Forex —
Nigeria's economy expanded by 4.43% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, up from 4.23% in the same period of 2025. The Federal Ministry of Finance, in a statement issued on Tuesday, said the latest figure also improved on the 3.89% recorded in the first quarter of 2026.
The ministry said the stronger Q2 performance lifted Nigeria's real GDP growth for the first half of 2026 to 4.16%, compared with 3.68% in the same period of 2025. It described the growth as more broad-based, with 27 economic sub sectors recording real growth above 3% in Q2 2026, against 23 sub sectors in Q2 2025.
Manufacturing, agriculture, services drive expansion
The productive sectors posted significant gains during the quarter. Manufacturing grew by 3.24%, more than double the 1.60% recorded in Q2 2025. Agriculture expanded by 4.39%, up from 2.82%. The services sector, which the ministry called the largest driver of growth, rose by 4.60%, compared with 3.94% in the corresponding period of 2025.
The ministry attributed part of the improvement in the economy's dollar value to the relative stability and appreciation of the naira. It said the naira appreciated by more than 12% between the first half of 2025 and the first half of 2026, helping to push the estimated size of the economy up by about 17% in US dollar terms over the period.
Poverty reduction and IMF projections
According to the ministry, sustained exchange rate stability and stronger growth could boost dollar incomes, improve purchasing power and lift millions of Nigerians out of poverty, especially if supported by government social programmes. It also cited International Monetary Fund projections ranking Nigeria among the top 10 contributors to global real GDP growth in 2026.
The ministry said the IMF expected Nigeria to account for about 1.5% of global growth this year, ahead of several advanced and emerging economies. It further projected that continued macroeconomic stability, sustained growth across productive sectors and improved investor confidence could accelerate Nigeria's emergence as Africa's largest economy by 2028.
The ministry said the latest figures underscored the need for policy consistency and the continuation of economic reforms so that growth translates into better living standards for Nigerians. “The Government remains focused on accelerating inclusive growth and translating these macroeconomic gains into shared prosperity for every Nigerian family,” the ministry said.
What it means for the naira and businesses
For Nigerian businesses, the reported naira appreciation and broader GDP growth point to improving dollar earnings and stronger consumer demand, if the trend holds. The government's $1trn economy target by 2030 now rests on keeping reforms stable and ensuring that growth in manufacturing, agriculture and services creates jobs, not just higher statistics.