Stock market set for mild recovery in H2 2026 despite election risks, high rates — Adonri

The Chief Executive Officer of HighCap Securities Limited, David Adonri, has said Nigeria's stock market should see a mild recovery in the second half of 2026. He spoke at the Capital Market Correspondents Association of Nigeria Mid-Year 2026 Capital Market Review and Outlook in Lagos on Tuesday.

Adonri said improving corporate fundamentals and sustained macroeconomic reforms will support the recovery. He noted that investors are responding to stronger corporate earnings and growing confidence in the reform agenda. However, he warned that high interest rates, inflation, the build-up to the 2027 general elections, insecurity, and the Gulf region conflict pose serious risks.

He explained that the recent correction on the Nigerian Exchange is not a sign of structural weakness. He called it a normal phase of institutional portfolio repositioning after the strong rally triggered by economic reforms. “The current market correction is a result of institutional investors repositioning their portfolios and not an indication of a breakdown in market fundamentals,” he said.

Adonri predicted that the high-interest rate environment will persist. He expects Exchange Traded Products to realign in value with their fundamentals as conditions improve. He also said the activation of commercial papers and derivatives markets will deepen the capital market, broaden investment options, and improve liquidity.

One major development ahead is the anticipated listing of Dangote Refinery on the Nigerian Exchange. Adonri described it as a potential game-changer that could transform the size, depth, and attractiveness of the domestic capital market.