Pound slips as traders await Bank of England policymakers
By Aboki Forex —
The pound dipped against the dollar on Tuesday as investors waited to hear from several Bank of England policymakers, including Governor Andrew Bailey, for insights on inflation and monetary policy outlook. Sterling traded at $1.3529, down 0.12% on the day.
Bailey, Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden, and monetary policy committee members Megan Greene and Alan Taylor will address lawmakers on the Treasury Select Committee at 1315 GMT. Traders largely expect the central bank to hold interest rates at 3.75% next week.
Oil surge and rate vote in focus
Policymakers' views will be closely watched given the recent surge in oil prices to nearly $100 a barrel and a surprise vote by a rate-setting member in July in favour of hiking interest rates. Barclays economists said in a note: "We expect a 6-3 vote (in favour of holding interest rates) as our baseline, with Greene, Mann and Pill dissenting. However, we see the risks as skewed towards more dissenters, with a small possibility they are joined by either Lombardelli or Ramsden."
The British central bank kept interest rates on hold in July as it waited for a keener sense of how much the U.S.-Iran war would drive up inflation, though the lack of progress towards a Middle East peace deal prompted Catherine Mann to join the hawks camp. Money market futures imply traders are fully pricing in one 25-basis-point rate hike by the end of 2026 despite signs of a slowing labour market.
Retail sales slow, yen strength hits pound
British retail sales growth slowed to a four-month low in August as a surge driven by record-hot weather earlier in the summer faded, figures from the British Retail Consortium trade body showed on Tuesday. Sterling was little changed at 85.83 pence per euro but slumped further against the Japanese yen, falling 0.2% to a near seven-month low of 208.46 yen as the Japanese currency climbed on expectations of a hawkish Bank of Japan outcome next week.
Geopolitical tensions continued to weigh on global investors, as oil prices hit multi-week highs after Iran-backed Houthis attacked Saudi energy facilities and Tehran threatened the United States with "economic warfare". Brent crude futures rose 1.7% to $98.70 a barrel.