Rand Gains on Easing Oil Prices, All Eyes on SARB Rate Decision
By Aboki Forex —
The South African rand strengthened in early trade on Monday, supported by falling oil prices. At 0541 GMT, the rand traded at 16.3375 against the dollar, about 0.8% up from its previous close.
Oil prices hit two-week lows on Monday. Optimism grew that the United States and Iran are moving closer to a peace deal. On Saturday, U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington and Iran had “largely negotiated” an understanding. The deal would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which carried a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments before the conflict.
Domestically, investors are focused on the South African Reserve Bank’s rate decision on Thursday. Economists at Nedbank expect the monetary policy committee to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. That would take the repo rate to 7% and the prime rate to 10.50%.
“Our analysis suggests that inflation expectations are particularly sensitive to petrol price increases. We therefore see a relatively high risk of second-round effects. Tightening monetary policy now would ensure the inflationary consequences of the supply-side shock are temporary. It would likely minimise the need for more severe tightening later in the cycle,” the bank’s economists said in a research note.
Economic indicators due this week include the composite leading business cycle indicator on Tuesday and producer inflation data on Thursday.
South Africa’s benchmark 2035 government bond also strengthened in early deals. The yield fell 4.5 basis points to 8.635%.