South Africa's economy 5% bigger after rebasing, stretches lead over Nigeria

South Africa's economy is about 5% larger than previously reported after a benchmarking and rebasing exercise, Statistics South Africa said on Thursday. Nominal GDP for 2025 is now estimated at 8.04 trillion rand, or approximately $483 billion, up from 7.64 trillion rand.

The revised estimate puts South Africa ahead of Nigeria as Sub-Saharan Africa's largest economy. Nigeria recorded nominal GDP of 441.5 trillion naira, equivalent to about $328 billion, last year. Nigeria is Sub-Saharan Africa's second-largest economy.

What changed

Statistics South Africa moved the base year for GDP calculations to 2022 from 2015. The rebasing also captured activities that were previously undercounted or unobserved, including self-generated electricity, illicit and illegal mining, manufacturing activity and e-hailing services.

All 10 sectors tracked by the statistics agency recorded higher output under the revised estimates. Mining, finance and trade registered the largest increases. Statistics agencies periodically rebase and benchmark GDP estimates to reflect changes in economic activity and the structure of their economies.

Why South Africa moved ahead

Nigeria previously had a larger economy in dollar terms. Successive devaluations of the naira allowed South Africa to overtake it. The latest rebasing adds to that shift by lifting South Africa's nominal GDP estimate in rand and in dollars.

Debt ratio in focus

Johann Els, chief economist at financial services firm PSG, said the upward revisions would improve the appearance of South Africa's public debt indicators. He pointed to the closely watched debt-to-GDP ratio, which the government is seeking to reduce.

What it means for Nigeria

The comparison is in dollar values. The exchange rates used were $1 = 16.6354 South African rand and $1 = 1,347.1700 Nigerian naira. For Nigerian businesses and consumers, the gap highlights how naira movements can change Africa's economic ranking even when domestic output is measured differently. The rebasing also shows that undercounted activities can meaningfully change the size of an economy.