Armed groups shift across Nigeria as military pressure intensifies, SBM warns of rising kidnap and mob justice

Security intelligence firm SBM Intelligence has warned that armed groups across Nigeria are relocating to new areas as military pressure intensifies, driving a rise in kidnapping, mob justice, and illegal oil refining. The warning is contained in SBM’s West Africa Security and Political Economy Report dated July 10, 2026.

According to the report, military operations in Zamfara, Kaduna, and Katsina states have displaced several armed groups, pushing them into new territories and increasing security risks in vulnerable border communities. Kidnapping syndicates are also expanding their use of forest corridors in the Southwest, while oil theft networks are becoming more sophisticated and embedded within civilian settlements.

Mob justice now accounts for half of violent incidents in Igabi LGA

SBM identified Igabi Local Government Area of Kaduna State as a major hotspot, noting that mob justice now accounts for half of all recorded violent incidents in the area. The report recorded six violent incidents in Igabi during the review period, three of which involved mob attacks.

“Residents are on edge because the area has been a hotspot for banditry for years, inspiring them to take security into their own hands,” the report stated, adding that mob violence now occurs approximately every four weeks.

The report also warned of a possible retaliatory attack in Zamfara State following the killing of Alhaji Tukur, the brother of notorious bandit leader Kachalla Shehu Bagiwaye, by local vigilantes. SBM assessed that Bagiwaye could launch revenge attacks against communities, including Dogon Kade, Shinkafi, and Zurmi within weeks.

In Kano State, the report identified Rogo Local Government Area as an emerging security flashpoint. Violent incidents in the area have increased by 150% over the past seven months, with ten separate attacks recorded between March and July 2026. According to SBM, the area has become attractive to displaced armed groups seeking new operational bases after intensified security operations elsewhere.

Bandit network operates from Kumbodoro Forest camp

The report linked recent attacks in Kagadama and Bagel villages in Dass Local Government Area of Bauchi State to a structured bandit network operating from the Azuge camp in Kumbodoro Forest. SBM noted that the killing of a victim in Bagel appeared deliberate and may signal a shift in tactics among kidnapping groups.

“The killing in Bagel appears to have been deliberate, not opportunistic. The victim was likely shot for resisting abduction,” the report stated.

The intelligence firm also highlighted a growing trend of kidnappers targeting business owners and individuals perceived to be financially successful, citing an attack on a pharmacy as evidence of increasing pre-operational surveillance by criminal groups. SBM expects another kidnapping attempt in the area within the coming weeks, either in Dass or neighbouring local government areas such as Alkaleri and Ningi.

Southwest forest corridors remain vulnerable

In Ondo State, SBM linked a failed abduction attempt in Ilu-Abo to a broader interstate kidnapping network operating across Ondo, Ekiti, and Kogi states. The report said the attackers displayed tactics consistent with criminal cells that have operated along the Akure–Owo corridor since 2022.

According to SBM, the group likely uses the Akoko–Kabba–Owo forest corridor, which connects northern Ondo with western Kogi State. The report warned that unless remaining members of the network are apprehended, the corridor could witness fresh attacks targeting business owners or commercial travellers later in the year.

In Oyo State, SBM highlighted a violent clash involving scavengers in the Ojoo area of Ibadan, noting that prolonged insecurity around the strategic transport hub could disrupt wholesale trade and regional commerce.

Oil theft networks becoming more sophisticated

SBM said illegal refining operations in Rivers State are evolving into highly organized supply chains involving different actors responsible for pipeline vandalism, crude transportation, refining, and product distribution. According to the report, stolen crude oil is likely being siphoned from pipelines connected to the OML 18 production corridor before being transported through creek networks into the Orashi National Forest.

The intelligence firm warned that unless security agencies identify and dismantle the upstream pipeline tapping points, refining activities could quickly resume even after current sites are destroyed.

In neighbouring Abia State, SBM reported the discovery of a large illegal refining site in Ihie-Ahiaaba, Isiala Ngwa South Local Government Area, where approximately 70 refining pits were abandoned before security forces arrived. The report noted that operators increasingly locate illegal facilities within civilian communities to reduce costs and avoid detection.

“These networks have blended into civilian environments to minimise logistical costs and exploit proximity to transport arteries,” SBM stated. It warned that new illegal refining sites could emerge in Ugwunagbo or Obinwa local government areas within the next three months if enforcement efforts fail to target financiers and local support structures.

Broader security trends emerge

Beyond specific incidents, SBM identified several broader trends shaping Nigeria’s security environment. These include increased use of explosives by armed groups, the growing influence of foreign Islamist militants, and rising domestic violence linked to economic hardship and weak dispute-resolution mechanisms. The report also noted that collaboration among security agencies in northern Nigeria has intensified, producing mixed outcomes, while anti-kidnapping operations have recorded some successes.

For Nigerian businesses, the displacement of armed groups into new territories raises the cost of logistics and security across multiple states. The targeting of business owners and commercial travellers in the Southwest and North-Central corridors could disrupt supply chains and deter investment in affected areas. The evolution of oil theft into sophisticated supply chains also threatens government revenue and the viability of production assets in the Niger Delta.