OPEC+ Expected to Hold December Oil Output Targets as Iran War Disrupts Exports

Seven key OPEC+ members are expected to keep oil production targets for December unchanged at an online meeting on Sunday, as export disruptions linked to the US-Iran war continue to hit shipments. Three people familiar with the matter said the core members have agreed in principle to maintain current output levels next month.

The meeting involves Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman. It was scheduled to begin at 1200 GMT, one of the sources said. All three sources declined to be identified.

Policy hold in line with expectations

The expected decision fits market expectations that further policy adjustments will be delayed until next year. OPEC+ had already kept production targets unchanged for October and November. Reuters reported in July that the group was likely to make no changes to its production targets during the fourth quarter as it shifted attention to negotiations over 2027 quotas.

Exports rise but output stays below targets

Gulf producers have been increasing exports that were disrupted for months by the conflict. But most are still producing below their agreed targets. OPEC+ comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers, including Russia.

The group increased production targets for much of 2026 and completed in September the phased rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut first agreed in 2023. It still has another layer of production cuts amounting to approximately 2 million barrels per day, covering most members through the end of 2026.

Focus shifts to 2027 quotas

OPEC+ is expected to complete a review of members' production capacity during the fourth quarter before setting the 2027 baseline levels. Those baselines will determine future quotas and guide plans to gradually unwind the remaining cuts.

For Nigeria, a member of OPEC+, the December hold means no immediate change in the wider group's production policy. The source does not provide Nigeria-specific quota numbers or a direct price forecast.