OPEC+ Holds November Output Steady as Brent Stays Above $100

OPEC+ has agreed to keep oil production targets steady for November, the producer group said after a brief online meeting on Sunday. The decision was taken by seven core members and was in line with market expectations that further output policy adjustments are unlikely until next year.

The core members are Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman. They will meet next on Nov. 1.

Output Still Far Below Quota

Gulf OPEC+ producers have been pumping well below their output targets because of continuing export disruptions linked to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. Exports have been fluctuating at 60% to 80% of normal levels in recent months.

"The OPEC+ group of seven kept their production ceilings unchanged, in line with market expectations. That said, despite rising flows through the Strait of Hormuz, their output levels remain well below quota," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. "Consequently, the oil market remains tight."

OPEC data shows the seven core members pumped 25 million barrels per day in August, up 630,000 bpd from July, yet still roughly 5 million bpd below prewar levels in February. OPEC+ has been raising output targets for much of 2026 after years of production cuts, but most of the increases stayed on paper because of the Middle East conflict. The group still has about 2 million bpd of output cuts in place covering most members.

G7 Reserve Release Weighs on Prices

Oil prices had dropped on Friday after European leaders agreed to U.S. President Donald Trump's request to release diesel reserves. Crude settled lower after the Group of Seven nations announced the release of diesel and crude stocks to ease surging fuel prices.

International benchmark Brent crude futures slipped 6 cents to close at $102.25 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude slid $1.76 to $91.11 a barrel.

The G7 will release 100 million barrels of reserves over the next four months, "with a frontloaded substantial diesel release within the first 20 days," the group's leaders said in a joint statement. The G7 includes France, Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the U.S.

Despite that announcement, Brent crude remains above $100 a barrel, up from about $73 before the Iran war started in late February.

Capacity Review Delayed

The Iran war has also delayed the group's output capacity review. That review is crucial to determining members' 2027 output quotas, but the conflict has thrown estimates of future production potential into uncertainty, industry sources said last week.

OPEC+ needs the result of the capacity review to decide how to distribute increases, and sources have said any changes to output are unlikely before 2027. A separate OPEC+ ministerial group, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, which does not set policy, also met on Sunday to review the market.

For Nigeria, a Brent price above $100 supports federation oil revenue and the naira's external buffers, even as the country's own output remains constrained. The steady OPEC+ target also means no fresh supply shock for local refiners and importers in the near term.