Olawale Opayinka reveals how Eko Atlantic financial model was built

Olawale Opayinka, founder and managing director of Makaya Consult FZE, has disclosed that he was brought in as far back as 2011 to develop the financial model for Eko Atlantic City. He spoke on The Coffee Table podcast hosted by Ugodre Obi-Chukwu.

Opayinka, who trained in actuarial science and has spent over 15 years embedded in the project, explained how he built a model for a city that did not yet exist. Eko Atlantic is a planned coastal city built on 10 million square metres of reclaimed land from the Atlantic Ocean, adjacent to Victoria Island in Lagos.

Actuarial roots

Opayinka said his actuarial training helped him quantify uncertainty and project long-term outcomes. “That discipline then meant that we have the capacity to make financial sense of the future. So, that’s at the heart of what we are, what we do. We make financial sense of the future. We put numbers on abstract things,” he said.

He trained with the Institute of Actuaries but clarified he is not a fellow. He later became the first Black consultant to set up an actuarial consulting firm in the United Kingdom, working with the UK’s Financial Services Authority, now the FCA, around the year 2000.

Population projections

Opayinka, who described demographics as central to actuarial work, said Nigeria’s population has quadrupled from around 65 million in 1976 to roughly 240 million today. He projected that in the next 50 years, the population would range from 830 million to 1.2 billion. “When I sit and tell you today that in the next 50 years, our population is likely to be 830 million, between 830 million at the low end to 1.2 billion at the other end… I’m actually on the low side of that range,” he said. He expects the true figure to land between one billion and 1.2 billion.

He also warned that Lagos, currently home to an estimated 20 million people, could double within 15 years. “If you think that Lagos is overpopulated today, imagine that in 15 years’ time, that number doubles. That means in 15 years’ time, you must double Lekki, Ikeja. You must create another Lagos,” he said. He noted that while digital infrastructure can scale quickly, physical and social infrastructure, including schools, would struggle to keep pace.

Nigeria’s entrepreneurial freedom

Opayinka described Nigeria as uniquely permissive for business. “We’re the freest nation on earth… In Nigeria, up till this year, you get born and you know you’re going to die. But you may not pay taxes,” he said. He argued that this freedom allows individuals to build refineries, banks or informal businesses with few barriers. He used the example of a hairdresser earning far more than a salaried worker to show how informal enterprise can generate outsized returns.

He also proposed viewing Nigeria’s population in four life-stage groups: 0 to 25 for education, 25 to 50 for industry-driving work, 50 to 75 for experienced deployment, and above 75 as elder statesmen he termed “the Gray Panthers.” He said this grouping could foster national unity, contrasting Nigeria’s fragmentation with the common values underpinning Singapore’s development under Lee Kuan Yew.

Market data on Eko Atlantic

According to data compiled by Estate Intel, Eko Atlantic led Lagos’ luxury residential market with a 59.5% sales growth rate over the last five years. Prime Lagos luxury assets delivered average sales price growth in naira of 38% to 60% annually over the same period. Ikoyi followed at 58.14%, while Banana Island recorded 55.30% growth.

A Nairametrics metric also ranked Eko Atlantic as the most expensive area for 2-bedroom shortlets in Lagos, with an average daily rate of N325,000 in 2025. The city’s master-planned design, modern infrastructure, and towers continue to make it a premium address, offering advanced drainage, 24/7 security, and professionally managed facilities for high-net-worth individuals, expatriates, and corporate tenants.