Oil prices fall as Iran de-escalation hopes outweigh Saudi attacks and Hormuz tanker risks

Global oil prices fell on Monday after reaching near six-month highs, as hopes of reduced hostilities between the United States and Iran eased concerns about potential supply disruptions.

Brent crude futures fell by $1.60, or 1.37%, to $115.10 per barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude dropped by $2.11, or 2.04%, to $101.20 per barrel.

Brent and WTI pull back after Friday rally

The decline followed a rally on Friday, when both benchmarks settled nearly $3 higher. Brent ended the week up 6%, while WTI gained 2.3% after Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia heightened concerns about supply disruptions.

Oil prices eased as investors weighed hopes of diplomatic progress against continued attacks on commercial shipping and energy infrastructure across the region.

Hormuz tanker attacks hit record level

The Strait of Hormuz remains a major source of concern for energy markets because of reported attacks on vessels travelling through the waterway. Reports indicate that the number of tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz has reached a record level so far this month.

Yemen's Houthi forces have continued attacks on Saudi infrastructure, including oil facilities. Data from the UK Maritime Trade Operations and the International Maritime Organization showed that at least 28 vessels were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz this month. The actual number could be higher because not all incidents are reported. At least 11 of the attacks targeted and damaged supertankers.

The continued attacks have left traders balancing the possibility of easing geopolitical tensions against the risk that further disruptions could restrict the movement of crude oil and other commodities.

Analyst sees buyers on Brent dips

John Evans, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, said the risks posed by attacks on Saudi Arabia could support oil prices even when the market experiences short-term declines.

"With the jeopardy doubled by Houthi attacks into Saudi, any Brent price dips back to the lows of last week will find grateful buyers," Evans said.

He added that the market correction had not reached a point where investors expecting higher prices would necessarily abandon that outlook. "Corrective processes are notoriously difficult to quantify, but this one has nowhere near reached any sort of levels where bulls might abandon hope," he said.

Diplomatic push under way

Diplomatic efforts were also under way to ease regional tensions. On Sunday, Qatari mediators were reported to have travelled to Tehran as part of an effort to de-escalate the conflict in coordination with the United States.

Senior officials from countries involved in the Mecca Pact, including Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, were expected to meet Iranian leaders in Tehran on Monday. The planned meeting would mark their first high-level contact since attacks by Iran-backed Houthi forces on Saudi Arabia became a pressure point in the wider conflict.

The latest decline follows a sharp rise in crude prices on October 22, 2026, when global benchmarks climbed above $111 per barrel amid fresh concerns about disruptions to energy supplies. Brent crude rose by 2.59% to $111.60 per barrel, while WTI traded at $98.98 per barrel, up $2.25 from its previous level.

The earlier rally followed claims by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy that seven vessels had been struck in separate incidents near the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. The wider US-Israeli war on Iran, which began on February 28, has continued to affect commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. October has been the worst month for attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and nearby waterways, according to data compiled by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, which has tracked maritime security incidents since 2017.

The latest price movement highlights the competing forces shaping the oil market: hopes of diplomatic de-escalation on one side and persistent threats to shipping and energy infrastructure on the other.