Taxation, Insecurity, High Interest Rates Top Nigerian Firms' Worries, CBN Survey Finds

Nigerian businesses say high or multiple taxation, insecurity and high interest rates were their biggest constraints in September 2026, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Business Expectations Survey. Even so, the Business Confidence Index stayed positive at 13.4 points, and firms expect sentiment to strengthen in the months ahead.

The CBN said the three factors recorded the highest constraint indices among all the issues assessed during the review period.

Taxation Leads The Complaint List

High or multiple taxation topped the list with 67.1 index points, followed by insecurity at 66.2 points and high interest rate at 64.3 points. The CBN listed these as "the top three business constraints."

Unfavourable political climate followed at 61.8 points, while high bank charges recorded 61.5 points. Competition came in at 60.2 points. Unclear economic laws and unfavourable economic climate both recorded 58.7 points. Financial constraints and poor infrastructure ranked lowest among the top 10 constraints, at 57.5 and 55.0 points respectively.

Confidence Still Positive Despite Pressure

The Business Confidence Index stood at 13.4 points in September, a slight decline from August but still in positive territory. Firms attributed their outlook to increased demand, economic diversification and access to finance.

"In the current month, respondents' positive outlook could be attributed to increased demand (29.3%), economic diversification (18.9%) and access to finance (13.5%)," the CBN said.

Industry recorded the strongest improvement, with its confidence index rising from 17.1 points in August to 19.4 points in September. Services moderated from 13.3 points to 10.2 points. Agriculture declined from 13.9 points to 12.8 points. All sectors still maintained positive business sentiment during the period.

Firms expect confidence to build further, with the index projected at 23.6 points in December 2026 and 36.1 points by March 2027.

Borrowing Costs And Naira Outlook

Businesses expect borrowing rates to remain elevated across the review periods, though the survey points to a modest decline over the next six months.

"Sentiment on the exchange rate leans firmly optimistic with respondents anticipating that the naira would gain modestly against the US dollar across review periods," the CBN said.

On lending, the apex bank noted: "Respondents anticipate that borrowing rates will remain high across all review periods, as evidenced by the sustained positive borrowing rate indices." It added that "there are expectations of a modest decline over the next six months."

All regions expressed optimism about the macroeconomy for the coming month except the South-East. The North-East emerged as the most optimistic region across the forecast horizon. The survey shows businesses remain cautiously optimistic about future conditions despite persistent concerns over taxation, insecurity and financing costs.

The findings sit against a backdrop of tax reform. In June 2025, President Bola Tinubu signed four landmark tax bills into law: the Nigeria Tax Bill, Nigeria Tax Administration Bill, Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Bill and the Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Bill. In March 2026, the Federal Government rolled out a presumptive tax framework for Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) to simplify compliance and draw informal operators into the tax net. The Joint Revenue Board also banned the collection of road taxes, levies and related charges through checkpoints, including road stickers by state and non-state actors, to curb multiple taxation.

For businesses, the survey matters on two fronts. Lending costs remain a drag on expansion plans, and the expected modest decline in borrowing rates would ease that pressure. A firmer naira would also cut import costs and support margins for firms that source materials abroad.