Nigeria’s new vehicle sales to grow 7.6% in 2026 on Dangote refinery boost – BMI
By Aboki Forex —
Nigeria’s new vehicle sales are projected to grow by 7.6% in 2026, building on an estimated 20% increase recorded in 2025. This is according to BMI’s latest Sub-Saharan Africa Autos Report.
The report says improving fuel supply, easing inflation, and supportive government policies are strengthening consumer purchasing power. The full ramp-up of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery is a key driver.
BMI notes that the refinery reached its full processing capacity of 650,000 barrels per day in February 2026. This has improved fuel availability, reduced reliance on imported petroleum products, and supported the naira.
Inflation slowed to 15.1% in February 2026, its lowest level since November 2020. BMI says easing price pressures could allow households to spend more on discretionary items like vehicles.
But the report warns that geopolitical tensions, currency pressures, and the dominance of the used-vehicle market could limit growth. Renewed depreciation of the naira later in the year could increase vehicle import costs.
BMI projects Nigeria’s automotive market to expand at a compound annual growth rate of 6.4% between 2026 and 2032. Growth is expected to be supported by rising demand for personal mobility, expansion of logistics networks, and government efforts to promote local vehicle manufacturing.
The electric vehicle segment is expected to grow faster than the broader market in 2026, driven by higher fuel costs after subsidy removal.