Nigeria’s crude oil sector grows 16.37% in Q1 2026 despite lower production
By Aboki Forex —
Nigeria’s crude petroleum sector expanded by 16.37% year-on-year in nominal terms during the first quarter of 2026, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The rebound reverses a 10.50% contraction recorded in the same period of 2025 and a steeper 31.59% decline in Q4 2025.
Production drops but value rises
Average daily crude oil production fell to 1.55 million barrels per day (mbpd) in Q1 2026, down from 1.62 mbpd in Q1 2025 and 1.58 mbpd in Q4 2025. Despite lower output, the crude petroleum and natural gas segment generated N4.27 trillion in nominal output, up from N3.67 trillion a year earlier. That is an increase of about N601.15 billion.
At constant 2019 prices, sector output rose to N2.01 trillion from N1.96 trillion in Q1 2025.
Mining sector recovers
The broader mining and quarrying sector grew 13.92% in nominal terms, reversing a 5.33% contraction recorded in Q1 2025. Crude petroleum accounted for 91.08% of the sector’s total output. Quarrying and other minerals grew 14.55%.
Coal mining contracted 15% in nominal terms, while metal ores shrank 6.24%. Both had strong growth for most of 2025.
Real growth slows
In real terms, crude petroleum and natural gas expanded 2.57% year-on-year in Q1 2026, up from 1.87% in Q1 2025 but down sharply from 6.79% in Q4 2025. The oil sector recorded quarter-on-quarter real growth of 9.31%.
Its contribution to real GDP rose to 3.92% from 2.87% in the previous quarter, but remained below the 3.97% contribution recorded in Q1 2025.
The broader mining and quarrying sector posted real growth of 1.89%, lower than 2.97% in Q1 2025 and 8.90% in Q4 2025.
Oil share of economy shrinks slightly
The crude petroleum and natural gas segment accounted for 3.86% of nominal GDP in Q1 2026, down from 3.90% in Q1 2025. Its real GDP contribution stood at 3.92%.
Nigeria’s oil sector remains modest compared to the non-oil economy, despite the nominal growth rebound.