Nigerian banks undervalued despite strong returns, says Chapel Hill Denham report
By Aboki Forex —
Nigeria’s biggest banks are trading at much lower valuations than their African peers, even though they deliver similar or better returns on equity. That is according to a new report by Chapel Hill Denham.
The report shows a clear valuation gap. South African and Moroccan banks enjoy high price-to-book ratios. Most Nigerian banks are trading below their book value.
FirstRand of South Africa trades at 2.07 times price-to-book with an 18.6 percent return on equity. Attijariwafa Bank of Morocco trades at 1.97 times price-to-book with a 16.1 percent return on equity. Stanbic IBTC Nigeria trades at 1.93 times price-to-book but delivers a high 42.4 percent return on equity.
In contrast, major Nigerian banks trade at deep discounts. Access Holdings is at 0.36 times price-to-book with a 17.6 percent return on equity. UBA is at 0.45 times price-to-book with a 19.7 percent return on equity. FCMB is at 0.66 times price-to-book with a 22.4 percent return on equity.
Investment experts expect banks with high returns on equity to trade at higher prices. But Nigerian banks are priced as if they are high-risk. They show strong profitability and solid balance sheets.
Chapel Hill Denham says the lower valuations are not mainly due to poor management inside the banks. The problem is difficult economic conditions in Nigeria. These include sharp falls in the naira value and high inflation. Frequent changes in banking rules by the Central Bank of Nigeria also play a role. Examples include Cash Reserve Ratio adjustments. Nigeria’s lower country credit rating compared to South Africa and Morocco is another factor.
Even when returns are adjusted for inflation, Nigerian banks still appear undervalued compared to peers. Stanbic IBTC is the clear exception. It trades at a premium because it is backed by South Africa’s Standard Bank. It is seen as having stronger governance and lower risk.
The report notes that current low prices suggest the market has already priced in the worst possible problems. With the ongoing bank recapitalisation exercise bringing in hundreds of billions of naira, Chapel Hill Denham believes this could be a turning point.
The big Nigerian banks, often called FUGAZ, now hold total assets of N164 trillion, about $113 billion. This makes them very important to the economy. As they move away from foreign exchange trading profits toward more stable income from interest and digital services, their earnings quality is expected to improve.
The report sees room for these banks’ valuations to rise by 2027 if the naira becomes more stable and economic conditions improve. Chapel Hill Denham concludes that Nigerian banks currently offer value, but investors remain cautious due to macroeconomic and regulatory risks.