Nigeria to publish new poverty and income scorecard as Tinubu seeks proof reforms are working

The Nigerian government plans to start publishing indicators that track poverty, incomes and inequality, as President Bola Tinubu’s administration tries to show that its economic reforms are actually improving living standards. The proposed scorecard is designed to answer criticism that higher government revenue, better foreign exchange liquidity and stronger investor confidence have not yet made life better for households struggling with high food, transport and living costs.

Three indicators for shared prosperity

Taiwo Oyedele, speaking at a BusinessDay conference in Lagos, said the government would measure what it calls 'shared prosperity' using three specific indicators. These are reductions in multidimensional poverty, increases in real income per capita, and lower income inequality. Oyedele said the Ministry of Finance would produce the scorecard, but he did not say when it would be published or how often it would be updated.

Reforms praised by investors, painful for households

The reforms introduced in 2023, including the removal of the fuel subsidy and the liberalisation of the naira, have been praised by investors and international lenders. But they have also pushed up inflation and the cost of living. The International Monetary Fund said in June that while the reforms have strengthened economic stability and investor confidence, around 63% of Nigeria's 200 million people remain in poverty and millions still face food insecurity. The reform programme has also attracted criticism over corruption and allegations of unbudgeted government spending, raising concerns about fiscal discipline.

Macro stability is not enough, Oyedele warns

Oyedele acknowledged that inflation was easing, the foreign exchange market was functioning more efficiently and investor confidence was returning. But he stressed that macroeconomic stability alone was not enough. 'A stable economy can still be a stagnant one if we become complacent,' he said.

What this means for Nigerians

For ordinary Nigerians, the scorecard is a direct attempt by the government to prove that the pain of subsidy removal and naira devaluation will eventually lead to better living standards. If the indicators show real income per capita rising and poverty falling, it could boost confidence in Tinubu’s economic direction. If they do not, the pressure on the naira and on household budgets will only intensify.