Nigeria's exports to China fall 54% to N506.57bn despite zero-tariff access

Nigeria's merchandise exports to China fell by N601.82bn in the second quarter of 2026, even after Beijing granted Nigerian products duty-free entry from 1 May. The drop widened the trade gap between the two countries.

Figures from the National Bureau of Statistics show exports to China dropped 54.30 per cent, from N1.108tn in Q2 2025 to N506.57bn in Q2 2026. Over the same period, imports from China rose by N955.58bn, or 19.26 per cent, from N4.96tn to N5.92tn.

The imbalance gets wider

The merchandise trade deficit with China widened by N1.56tn, or 40.43 per cent, from N3.85tn in Q2 2025 to N5.41tn in Q2 2026. For every N1 worth of goods Nigeria sold to China in the quarter, it bought about N11.68 worth of Chinese products. A year earlier, the ratio was N4.48.

China remained Nigeria's largest source of imports, accounting for 41.02 per cent of the country's total import bill of N14.42tn in the quarter. That is up from 32.45 per cent in the same period of 2025.

The export decline stands out because Nigeria's total exports grew 18.77 per cent, from N22.75tn to N27.02tn. Exports to Asia rose 17.55 per cent, from N7.42tn to N8.72tn. China's share of Nigeria's exports to Asia fell from 14.93 per cent to 5.81 per cent, a drop of 9.13 percentage points. Its share of total exports fell from 4.87 per cent to 1.87 per cent.

India moved further ahead as Nigeria's top Asian export destination, with shipments rising 65.95 per cent from N1.98tn to N3.29tn. That suggests the China decline was not part of a general slump in trade with Asia.

Two months of zero tariff

Quarter-on-quarter, exports to China fell 12.99 per cent from N582.20bn in Q1 2026 to N506.57bn in Q2. The Q2 window included the first two months of the zero-tariff arrangement.

The concession only took effect on 1 May, so April exports came before it. The quarterly numbers cannot show whether shipments rose or fell specifically during the two months of preferential access. The statistics also measure the naira value of merchandise exports, not volumes, so the aggregate figures alone cannot separate price effects from quantity or product mix.

China extended zero-tariff treatment to Nigeria and 19 other African countries on 1 May 2026. The arrangement runs until 30 April 2028. It expanded an earlier concession covering 33 African least developed countries, bringing total beneficiaries to 53.

Qualifying Nigerian goods enter China duty-free, subject to customs requirements, rules of origin and applicable tariff quotas. Announcing the deal in Abuja in March, Chinese Ambassador to Nigeria Yu Dunhai said: "On March 26th, China and Nigeria signed the framework agreement on economic partnership for shared development. So, we are now working together to ensure the zero-tariff policy takes effect on May 1st. That means starting from May 1st of this year, all Nigerian products, 100 per cent, will enjoy zero tariff when exported to China."

He said the policy followed the 26 March signing of the economic partnership framework and would help agriculture and manufacturing reach the Chinese market.

What it means for Nigeria

The gap matters for the naira. Nigeria is buying far more from China than it sells, and the Q2 deficit of N5.41tn is a large share of the quarter's total import bill. Zero tariff opens the door, but Nigerian exporters still have to get goods through it in volume before the trade balance shifts.