Nigeria's Exports to Africa Hit N10.72tn, But Oil and a Weak Naira Drive the Surge

Nigeria's exports to African countries jumped 122.26 per cent to N10.72tn in the first half of 2026, from N4.82tn in the same period of 2025. But the surge was driven almost entirely by crude oil and petroleum products, and experts warn the headline figure is inflated by the naira's depreciation rather than real growth in earnings.

Half-year records show Nigeria's exports to Africa have risen 675.9 per cent in naira value over six years, an almost eight-fold increase. Crude petroleum, refined fuels, gas products, electricity and urea jointly accounted for 94.75 per cent of exports to Africa in H1 2026, valued at about N10.15tn, up from a 90.24 per cent share worth N4.35tn in H1 2025.

Oil and gas crowd out everything else

The oil and gas value chain grew by 133.36 per cent between the two periods, faster than the 122.26 per cent overall growth in exports to the continent. That means the boom was driven disproportionately by petroleum products, not the non-oil exports the Federal Government has championed.

Identifiable non-oil products, including cement, cigarettes, tyres, vessels and food preparations, actually fell in value from about N309.46bn in H1 2025 to N296.61bn in H1 2026, a decline of 4.15 per cent. Their share of total exports to Africa nearly halved, from 6.42 per cent to 2.77 per cent.

Those oil-versus-non-oil figures are estimates based on the top 14 to 15 product lines disclosed in the National Bureau of Statistics' quarterly top-traded-products data for Q1 and Q2 of 2025 and 2026, since the NBS does not publish a full per-product breakdown of total exports to Africa.

The naira illusion

Dr Ayo Teriba, Chief Executive Officer of Economic Associates, warned against reading the naira-denominated figures at face value. He called the pattern a "naira illusion" tied to the currency's devaluation.

"If you got $10 last year and you devalue it, you still got $10. When you go to naira, you say I got N10 last year, and I got N100 this year because the exchange rate has gone to 10 to 1. Only a fool will be happy about that, because nothing has changed," he said.

Teriba said the depreciation was not deliberately engineered to inflate revenue, noting Nigeria had run down its reserves and could no longer meet forex demand at the old official rate before the naira was floated. "It creates the illusion of increased price. Nobody is denying that. But we are saying it is an illusion."

He argued a stronger naira was in Nigeria's interest because it would help rein in inflation, and called for a cleaner measurement of intra-African trade in dollars.

Dangote refinery and the call for better data

Teriba linked the increase to the Dangote refinery: "Dangote Refinery came on stream right around 2024, and it tracks with the increased exports. Stripping away what proceeds from Dangote Refinery will give us a clearer look."

Marcel Mba, Chief Executive Officer of Alpine Supply Chain Solutions, agreed. "What I see as contributing to a significant increase in Nigeria's export to African countries would obviously be refined petroleum products and petrochemicals from Dangote Refinery," he said.

Mba said crediting non-oil trade for much of the growth would be misleading, and listed cement, alcoholic bitters and drinks, Innoson Motors vehicles and floor tiles as non-oil products likely adding modest growth. He urged the NBS and the Nigerian Customs Service to publish a product-by-product breakdown of the N10.72tn figure.

Nigeria's exports to Africa stood at N1.38tn in H1 2020, fell to N963bn in H1 2021 and N904.05bn in H1 2022, rebounded to N1.31tn in H1 2023, then jumped 221.32 per cent to N4.21tn in H1 2024 before reaching N4.82tn in H1 2025.

For Nigerian businesses, the data points to a narrow export base. Intra-African trade is expanding on paper, but the value is still concentrated in petroleum, leaving non-oil exporters with a shrinking share of the continent's market.