Nigeria records 835 security deaths in October 2026, highest monthly toll of campaign season

Nigeria recorded at least 835 security-related deaths in October 2026, the highest monthly toll of the 2026 campaign season so far, according to SARI Global's latest security assessment. The report documented 612 security-related incidents in the month, up from 535 incidents and 587 fatalities in September.

SARI Global attributed the rise to armed conflict, mass-casualty attacks, banditry and other security-related events. It identified three trends: increased lethality, expanding armed-group activity and growing threats to civilian movement, especially in the North-West and North-East.

Armed groups drive October deaths

Armed conflict accounted for the largest share of deaths, with 617 fatalities across 202 incidents. Criminality and law enforcement incidents had the highest volume of events, with 276 incidents and 86 fatalities.

The report said: "October 2026 was the most lethal month of the campaign season so far, with 612 incidents and at least 835 fatalities, up from 535 incidents and 587 fatalities in September."

Non-state armed actors initiated 221 incidents, compared with 218 attributed to government-affiliated forces. They were responsible for 480 fatalities, against 197 linked to government-affiliated forces. More than a third of recorded deaths were armed-group fighters, including casualties from military operations and failed attacks in Buni Yadi, Birnin Tudu and Bukkuyum.

Civilian deaths were concentrated in major attacks: at least 62 people in Binnari, Taraba; 20 people in a convoy ambush near Gurusu; 18 loggers at Momo in Borno; and 17 people, including 12 soldiers, at a mining site in Bindin, Zamfara.

Hazards accounted for 117 deaths, including 25 people killed in an Air Force ATR-42 crash at Igbokoda, Ondo State, and 20 deaths in a road crash on the Hawan Kibo road in Plateau State.

Fatalities occurred in two major waves. The first week recorded 234 deaths, while the fourth week accounted for 252. The final three days of October added 117 fatalities, largely from attacks in Buni Yadi and Bukkuyum. SARI said the figures are minimum confirmed death counts and should be treated as a floor, not a complete estimate.

North-West banditry expands

The North-West recorded 155 incidents and 224 fatalities across Katsina, Sokoto, Zamfara and Kebbi. Armed groups increasingly targeted roads, convoys, markets and rural communities.

Zamfara recorded 69 incidents and 137 fatalities, with bandits using road blockades, ambushes and threats to restrict movement and control communities. In Katsina, at least 40 farmers were abducted in Faskari on October 24, while attacks and kidnappings hit several major roads.

The North-East recorded the highest state-level death toll. Borno accounted for 180 fatalities across 51 incidents. ISWAP concentrated operations on military positions, attacking bases in Kukawa, Mairari, Hong, Buni Yadi and Bitta.

Taraba attack raises new concerns

The October 23 attack on Binnari in Karim Lamido Local Government Area, Taraba State, marked a major escalation. At least 62 people were killed and 52 injured, according to the emergency management agency. Attackers struck the market on market day, a mosque shortly after Friday prayers and the local vigilante office. Residents fleeing towards the Benue River were pursued into the water, where many drowned. A further attack followed on October 27, while kidnappers targeted travellers on the Ibbi-Zugurma road the next day.

SARI said the scale and coordination of the assault resembled mass-casualty bandit attacks in the North-West, rather than the communal violence more commonly associated with Taraba. The identity of the attackers had not been established in the assessment.

The report also highlighted the killing of cleric Sheikh Yahaya Ibrahim Masussuka and an associate in Dutsin-Ma, Katsina State, on October 26. Ansaru claimed responsibility in a video, citing his advocacy for interfaith coexistence, while his followers pointed to a longstanding dispute with the Izala movement.

Southern states recorded 179 incidents and 111 fatalities, with road crashes, cult clashes, communal disputes and security operations accounting for much of the activity. Political and campaign-related tensions increased, with protest and civil unrest incidents rising to 66 from 28 in September. About 46 incidents were linked to political parties, campaigns or political thugs.

The assessment follows an earlier UN report that at least 1,932 people were killed across Borno, Adamawa and Yobe states between April and June 2026. Insecurity, attacks on humanitarian personnel, bureaucratic restrictions and harsh weather continued to hamper aid operations in the North-East.

For businesses, the report points to higher security and logistics risks in the North-West and North-East, where armed groups are restricting movement on roads and around markets. That affects farming, trade and aid delivery in communities already under pressure.