Nigeria moves closer to $1trn economy as dollar GDP surges 17%

Nigeria's economy expanded by an estimated 17 per cent in US dollar terms between the first halves of 2025 and 2026, driven by a stronger naira and accelerating economic activity. The Federal Ministry of Finance disclosed this on Tuesday in a statement issued by Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele.

The ministry said the naira appreciated by more than 12 per cent between the first half of 2025 and the first half of 2026. That currency gain, combined with real economic growth, produced the estimated 17 per cent rise in the dollar value of national output. The development gives fresh momentum to the Federal Government's target of building a $1 trillion economy by 2030, a goal already written into the Medium-Term National Development Plan for 2026 to 2030.

Real GDP climbs on broader sectoral gains

Nigeria's real GDP grew by 4.43 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 4.23 per cent in Q2 2025 and 3.89 per cent in the first quarter of this year. The stronger second-quarter performance lifted real GDP growth for the first half of 2026 to 4.16 per cent, up from 3.68 per cent during the same period last year.

According to the Finance Ministry, the expansion is becoming more broad-based. Twenty-seven economic subsectors recorded growth of more than three per cent in Q2 2026, compared with 23 subsectors a year earlier. Manufacturing grew by 3.24 per cent, more than double its 1.60 per cent growth in Q2 2025. Agriculture expanded by 4.39 per cent, up from 2.82 per cent, while services grew by 4.60 per cent compared with 3.94 per cent previously.

Africa's largest economy in view

Oyedele said the combination of stronger growth and exchange-rate stability could strengthen dollar incomes and purchasing power if sustained. He added that it would help position Nigeria among Africa's largest economies. The ministry said Nigeria could potentially become Africa's largest economy by 2028 if macroeconomic stability, sectoral growth and investor confidence continue to improve.

The ministry also cited an IMF projection placing Nigeria among the top 10 contributors to global real GDP growth in 2026, with the country expected to account for roughly 1.5 per cent of global growth. It stressed that sustaining reforms and policy consistency would be crucial to converting the improving macroeconomic figures into broader economic gains.

“The Government remains focused on accelerating inclusive growth and translating these macroeconomic gains into shared prosperity for every Nigerian family,” the ministry said.