Nigeria Faces $6.4bn Eurobond Repayment Wall by 2030, World Bank Warns

Nigeria must repay $6.4bn in sovereign Eurobond principal between 2024 and 2030, the joint third-largest exposure in sub-Saharan Africa, according to the World Bank. The figure comes from the bank's October 2026 Africa Economic Update, titled Building AI Readiness, which tracked rising debt-servicing and refinancing pressures across the continent.

The report ranks South Africa first with $11.8bn, followed by Ghana and Nigeria, each at $6.4bn, and Angola at $3.9bn. South Africa has maturities in every year of the period.

Region's $43.6bn maturity wall

The World Bank estimated that sovereign Eurobond principal maturing across 13 sub-Saharan African countries between 2024 and 2030 stood at about $43.6bn, after adjusting for bond buybacks and liability-management operations completed through August 2026. Nigeria's $6.4bn represents about 14.7 per cent of that total.

South Africa, Ghana and Nigeria together account for $24.6bn, roughly 56 per cent of the $43.6bn maturity wall. Other significant obligations include Angola at $3.9bn, Kenya at $3.2bn, Cote d'Ivoire at $2.8bn and Zambia at $2.2bn.

The report said, "South Africa faces the largest repayment burden, with US$11.8 billion, with maturities in every year of the period. It is followed by Ghana ($6.4bn), Nigeria ($6.4bn), and Angola ($3.9bn)."

Nigeria is region's second-largest issuer

Sovereign Eurobond issuance in sub-Saharan Africa totalled about $122bn across 158 transactions between 2015 and August 2026. Six countries accounted for more than 80 per cent of those issuances, with Nigeria emerging as the region's second-largest issuer.

South Africa issued $23.7bn through 15 transactions, while Nigeria raised $20bn across 18 transactions. Angola followed with $15.8bn, Cote d'Ivoire with $15bn, Ghana with $12.6bn and Kenya with $12.2bn.

International capital markets became largely inaccessible to African governments after global interest rates rose in 2022. Nigeria, Angola and South Africa were the only sub-Saharan African sovereigns able to issue Eurobonds that year.

Market access began recovering in 2024, when Nigeria raised $2.2bn alongside issuances of $3.5bn by South Africa, $2.6bn by Cote d'Ivoire and $1.5bn by Kenya. But the return came at a higher price. Nigeria's 2024 Eurobond issuances carried coupons of 9.6 per cent and 10.4 per cent, about 300 basis points higher than comparable issuances in 2021. Across the region, yields on bonds issued during the 2024 reopening ranged between 7.1 per cent and 10.4 per cent, about 300 to 500 basis points above comparable levels before 2022.

Refinancing locks in higher costs

The World Bank warned that higher borrowing costs could compound fiscal pressures even where countries successfully refinance. "Although refinancing operations help ease near-term rollover pressures, they also lock in higher debt service costs for years to come, increasing fiscal burdens and reducing policy space even as immediate refinancing risks subside," the report said.

Refinancing rather than outright repayment from government revenues has become the main strategy for most African sovereigns. Kenya refinanced most of a $2bn Eurobond maturing in 2024 by issuing $1.5bn in new debt, supplemented with budget resources, at a yield of 10.4 per cent against the original 6.9 per cent coupon. Ghana handled its obligations through a debt exchange completed in October 2024, while Ethiopia restructured its $1bn debut Eurobond after defaulting in late 2023.

After liability-management operations cut obligations due in 2028 to about $5.5bn, the largest forthcoming concentrations are $6.6bn in 2027 and $7.5bn in 2029. The bank also flagged that many Eurobonds issued during the 2024-2026 reopening carry maturities of only five to six years, against the 10- to 12-year tenors common before the COVID-19 pandemic.

"For several Sub-Saharan African sovereigns, Eurobond financing increasingly resembles a refinancing cycle in which successive rollovers address near-term maturities but gradually erode fiscal space through higher debt service costs," the bank stated.

Public and publicly guaranteed external debt service across sub-Saharan Africa has stayed elevated at about 1.6 to 1.7 per cent of GDP since 2021, with rising interest and principal payments consuming revenues that could fund infrastructure, human capital and social protection.