Naira heads for strongest run since 2018 as reserves hit $53.99bn
By Aboki Forex —
Nigeria's naira is on course for its best year since at least 2018, with investment banks projecting a year-end rate of N1,290 per dollar. That would extend the currency's eight percent gain so far this year to almost 12 percent.
Four investment firms see the naira settling between N1,200 and N1,350 per dollar. The official market closed at N1,315.67 on Thursday, while external reserves stood at an 18-year high of $53.99 billion.
Banks split on year-end range
CardinalStone expects the naira to hover around N1,310 per dollar. Zedcrest Capital projects approximately N1,300. Cordros Securities sees a broader range of N1,250 to N1,350. MDU Capital is most optimistic, predicting N1,200 to N1,300.
The projections point to growing confidence in the Central Bank of Nigeria's foreign exchange management, with market participants expecting reduced volatility through the rest of the year.
Official and parallel gaps widen
The naira appreciated by N11.02 in the official Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market on Thursday, a 0.84 percent gain from N1,326.69 quoted on Wednesday. In the parallel market, the currency steadied at N1,400 per dollar. The gap between both rates widened to 6.46 percent from 4.63 percent.
Interbank FX turnover surged 62.33 percent to $152.04 million on Thursday, from $93.66 million the previous day. Deals rose 45.71 percent, from 105 to 153.
During August, the naira gained 1.5 percent in the official market. Turnover climbed to $14.68 billion, the highest in five months. The parallel market moved just 0.06 percent in the same period.
Remittances and oil lift dollar supply
Remittance inflows through International Money Transfer Operators hit $947 million in July 2026, the highest monthly figure ever recorded through formal channels. That is close to the $1 billion monthly target set by CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso.
IMTO inflows reached $3.8 billion in the first seven months of 2026, up 50.2 percent from the same period in 2025. Cardoso said reforms made formal channels more competitive.
“When we set a clear ambition to reach $1 billion a month in remittance inflows through formal channels nearly two years ago, some people thought we were dreaming. At $947 million in July, we are now approaching that milestone,” he said.
He added: “July is an important marker, but our focus is not on a single month. It is on creating the conditions for sustained growth in formal remittances. We expect to keep seeing improvement and believe Nigeria can reach and ultimately sustain monthly inflows above $1 billion.”
Oil prices are also supporting the external sector. Brent crude averaged $87.26 per barrel in August, up 5 percent, though it moved above $90 at points on Middle East tensions.
What it means for the naira
Stronger dollar inflows and rising reserves give the CBN more room to defend the naira. But the widening premium between official and parallel rates signals pre-election dollar demand and structural pressure from real estate dollarisation. Sustaining the naira's gains will depend on keeping formal remittances and FX liquidity on the current trajectory.