Military strikes and cholera outbreak collapse ISWAP operations in Northeast – SBM Report

A lethal combination of relentless military kinetic action and a devastating cholera epidemic has triggered a total operational collapse of the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) in Northeast Nigeria. This is according to the latest weekly Security and Political Economy Report by SBM Intelligence.

The intelligence briefing reveals that precision joint air campaigns systematically dismantled the group’s leadership while a simultaneous waterborne disease outbreak aggressively hollowed out its remaining foot soldiers. Together, these dual forces have brought insurgent activities in Borno State to a near-total standstill.

Joint US-Nigerian strikes decapitate ISWAP command

According to the report, the initial fracturing of the terror network began in mid-May during a high-stakes joint US-Nigerian military air operation. A series of precision strikes successfully eliminated several high-profile ISWAP commanders, including the notorious Abubakar Mainok, at their stronghold in Metele.

This tactical decapitation instantly broke the group’s communication, command, and logistics networks. SBM Intelligence data tracks a massive statistical nosedive in insurgent output following the strikes.

“The joint US and Nigerian campaign opened on 16 May, killed Abubakar Mainok alongside other senior commanders at Metele, and continued with further strikes across the North East in the days that followed, five days before the outbreak window in the period under review,” the report stated. “As such, the decline should be seen as strike-driven degradation which the cholera outbreak is compounding rather than causing.”

Cholera epidemic finishes off surviving fighters

As the surviving insurgents attempted to regroup in the wilderness without stable bases, a severe cholera outbreak swept through Borno State. The health crisis, with 83% of all cases concentrated in the densely populated Maiduguri and Jere Local Government Areas (LGAs), rapidly infiltrated insurgent hideouts.

Deprived of clean water infrastructure and basic logistics by ongoing military pressure, the remaining terrorist units were entirely defenseless against the epidemic. Instead of preparing for tactical offensives, the group’s daily reality has deteriorated into a desperate struggle against biological elimination.

Kidnap-for-ransom economy still thriving

According to the report, military successes are frequently eroded by weak governance structures, intelligence failures at the community level, and a rapidly expanding kidnap-for-ransom economy worth billions of naira.

One of the report’s key concerns emerged from Kogi State, where the recent abduction of a school principal, a NECO ad hoc staff member, and four students from Government Secondary School in Dekina Local Government Area exposed gaps in both intelligence gathering and crisis communication.

While the state government maintained that the victims were rescued through a coordinated security operation without ransom payments, relatives of those abducted disputed the claim. “While the Kogi State Government claims the victims were rescued through a coordinated security operation without paying ransom, the family of one of the victims has strongly disputed this, insisting that the kidnappers were paid a ransom of N1.5 million before their relative was released,” the report stated.

SBM Intelligence noted that although security agencies deployed drone surveillance to track the kidnappers, local informants allegedly alerted the criminals, enabling them to evade capture. The report warned that schools located in border communities remain highly vulnerable due to the ability of attackers to cross state boundaries and retreat before security forces can respond effectively.

According to SBM Research data, more than 4,400 people have been abducted from schools across Nigeria over the past decade, with over N8 billion paid in ransom.

What this means for Nigerian security and the economy

The collapse of ISWAP operations in the Northeast is a major win for military efforts, but the persistence of the kidnap-for-ransom economy shows that security gains remain fragile. With billions of naira flowing to criminal networks through ransom payments, the pressure on households and businesses continues. Until intelligence gathering at the community level improves and governance gaps are closed, these security wins may not translate into lasting safety or economic stability for Nigerians.