MAN confidence index recovers in Q2 2026, high interest rates cloud outlook
By Aboki Forex —
Nigerian manufacturers regained confidence in the business environment in the second quarter of 2026, according to the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN). The association said the Manufacturers’ CEOs Confidence Index (MCCI) rose by 3.4 points to 52.1, returning above the 50-point benchmark after a weak first quarter.
Confidence returns, driven by policy expectations
MAN released the Q2 2026 MCCI report on Thursday. The index stood at 48.7 in Q1 2026. The association said the improvement was driven largely by expectations around the commercial environment, supported by recent policy measures including the Nigeria Tax Act 2025, Nigeria Industrial Policy and the “Nigeria First” Policy.
“The aggregate MCCI for Q2 2026 was 52.1. This was 3.4 points higher than that of Q1 2026 which stood at 48.7. Specifically, within the second quarter of 2026, manufacturers reported a return of confidence in doing business in Nigeria,” MAN said.
“This confidence was more related to the expected commercial environment than to the economy’s hitherto business and employment conditions. The recent tax laws, executive orders and other business-related policies cast a more positive outlook on manufacturing executives,” MAN added.
Manufacturers also expect a stronger third quarter. MAN said the expected business condition index for Q3 2026 was 55.6, while employment condition and production level indices stood at 55.2 and 63.0 respectively.
Finance and sector disparities remain
Despite the positive outlook, manufacturers identified limited access to finance as their biggest challenge. The association noted that the Monetary Policy Rate currently stands at 26.5%, adding that high lending rates have limited the flow of credit to manufacturers.
MAN recommended that the Central Bank of Nigeria reduce the MPR below 20% to improve access to credit. It also called for priority foreign exchange allocation for manufacturers importing machinery, spare parts and production materials.
The recovery was uneven across sectors. The Motor Vehicle and Miscellaneous Assembly sector recorded the highest confidence level at 69.4, rising sharply from 41.3 in Q1 2026. Wood and Wood Products followed at 66.7, while Textile, Apparel and Footwear stood at 58.3.
On the flip side, Pulp, Paper, Printing, Publishing and Packaging recorded the lowest confidence at 38.6. Electrical and Electronics came in at 42.5, and Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals at 47.7.
Policy backing and power concerns
The improved sentiment comes amid renewed government efforts to reposition Nigeria’s industrial base. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu unveiled the Nigeria Industrial Policy 2025 in February 2026 as a strategic roadmap to strengthen the industrial ecosystem, promote value addition and accelerate growth.
At the unveiling, Tinubu said the policy was designed to re-engineer Nigeria’s industrial landscape. He stressed that policies often fail at the execution stage rather than at the point of conception.
Industrialists, including Aliko Dangote, have continued to call for urgent power sector reforms. They describe reliable electricity as critical to achieving sustainable industrial growth.
MAN has also pushed back against policy recommendations it believes could undermine local manufacturing. In April, the association rejected the World Bank’s recommendation to reinstate petrol import licences. MAN Director-General, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, warned that such a move could trigger deindustrialisation and reverse gains from domestic refining capacity. The World Bank later removed the report from its website and issued a clarification.
What it means for Nigerian businesses
The rebound in the MCCI shows that manufacturers see promise in the current policy direction. But with borrowing costs still high and power supply unreliable, the recovery could stall. If credit conditions do not improve, production costs may stay elevated, putting pressure on prices and making Nigerian goods less competitive.