Luanda set to overtake Lagos as Sub-Saharan Africa’s most populous city by 2050, World Bank projects

Luanda, Angola’s capital, is projected to overtake Lagos as Sub-Saharan Africa’s most populous city by 2050, according to a World Bank report. The report says Luanda’s population will rise 78% from 11.4 million in 2025 to 20.3 million in 2050.

Lagos will still grow, but more slowly. The World Bank projects Lagos will expand by more than 25% over the same period, from 12.8 million to 16.2 million.

Luanda leads urban growth

The projection is in the World Bank report, Sub-Saharan Africa’s Urban Awakening: Catalyzing Economic Growth and Job Creation, edited by Mark Roberts and Emily M. Owen. The bank said population growth will reshape the ranking of Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest cities by 2050, with Luanda recording one of the biggest increases.

“The population of Angola’s capital city, Luanda, is projected to increase by 78 percent from 11.4 million to 20.3 million. In doing so, Luanda will overtake Lagos as SSA’s most populous city,” the report said.

Among the other 11 cities expected to remain in the region’s 15 most populous by 2050, projected growth ranges from 21% in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo, to 70% in Yaoundé, Cameroon. Bamako in Mali and Mogadishu in Somalia are expected to enter the top 15. Bamako’s population is projected to rise 80% from 4.2 million in 2025 to 7.6 million in 2050. Mogadishu is expected to grow 64% from 4.4 million to 7.2 million. Cape Town in South Africa and Kano in Nigeria are projected to leave the top 15, even though their populations are still expected to increase by 36% and 31%, respectively.

Lagos remains an economic centre

The population ranking does not remove Lagos from Africa’s major economic map. The state’s gross domestic product reached an estimated $259 billion based on purchasing power parity, making it Africa’s second-largest city economy behind Cairo, Egypt. In October 2026, Lagos unveiled a long-term development plan targeting an economy worth nearly $1 trillion by 2052. The plan is meant to attract investment and strengthen the state’s position as an international economic and financial hub.

The Lagos ambition is separate from the Federal Government’s target of growing Nigeria’s economy to $1 trillion by 2030, announced by President Bola Tinubu at the Nigeria Economic Summit in 2023. The World Bank cautioned in its May 2025 Nigeria Development Update, Building Momentum for Inclusive Growth, that Nigeria’s economic growth rate would need to increase about fivefold to reach the national target by the end of the decade.

What it means for Lagos

For Nigerian businesses, Lagos will remain the country’s key urban market even if Luanda becomes the region’s most populous city. The state’s $1 trillion plan will depend on investment, infrastructure and job creation as its population rises from 12.8 million to 16.2 million by 2050.