Japan exports miss forecasts with 16.7% September growth

Japan’s exports rose 16.7% in September from a year earlier, missing market expectations by a huge margin, as growth slowed for a second straight month. Analysts polled by Reuters had projected export growth of 20.1%.

The slowdown follows a near four-year high in July. September’s growth was still supported by strong semiconductor shipments, which rose 49.4% year on year by value. Semiconductor-related machinery exports climbed 43.9%, while power generation machinery exports rose 22.6%.

China and US shipments

Shipments to mainland China, Japan’s largest trading partner, increased 8.6%. Exports to the United States climbed 22.9%.

Exports have been the main driver of Japan’s growth in the first two quarters of 2026. They helped the world’s fourth largest economy beat expectations in the first quarter and supported growth in the second.

Imports also miss forecasts

Japan’s imports grew 18.9% in September, below expectations of 19.6% from Reuters. Tokyo’s petroleum imports climbed 51.1% by value. Inbound shipments from the United States surged nearly 820%, while those from the Middle East inched up just 1.5% as conflict in the region continued to impede supplies.

Markets and BOJ

After the data release, the benchmark index was up 1.8%, while the Topix gained 1.14%. The data comes as the Bank of Japan is set to meet next week. Reuters poll estimates indicate the central bank will hold its policy rate steady at 1%.