Ivory Coast cocoa mid-crop set to nearly halve after weak October rains

Ivory Coast’s 2026/27 cocoa mid-crop could almost halve to 300,000 to 350,000 metric tons from about 600,000 tons last season, after weak and erratic El Nino-linked October rains failed to support flowering and pod development, exporters, pod counters and cooperatives say. The world’s top cocoa producer now expects total 2026/27 output of 1.5 million to 1.6 million tons, down from around 1.7 million tons projected in September.

The latest estimate is 25% to 30% below the 2.15 million tons delivered to ports last season. The mid-crop runs from April to September. The figures came from three pod counters and five exporters, with the forecast update reported on Nov 4 in Abidjan.

Rains arrived too late

The current El Nino is among the strongest on record by some measures. It is typically linked to weak rains across West Africa’s cocoa belt from September to November, followed by strong, dry Harmattan winds. A month ago, industry participants hoped October rains would relieve trees weakened by prolonged dry weather. They now say the rains came too late and were too uneven.

“We had some rains in the second half of October, but they were irregular,” one pod counter said. “They won’t change the picture for the main crop and they revived concerns about a very average mid-crop.” Of 17 industry participants surveyed, only three said plantations looked better than a year ago. Most said flowers and small pods that emerged after the rains were unlikely to survive Harmattan winds expected in December and January, or the dry season from January to March.

“The rains came, but they were not strong enough, and the heat that followed was intense,” said the director of a European export company in Abidjan.

Main crop also smaller

The main crop, harvested from September to February, is still expected at about 1.2 million tons, compared with 1.5 million tons last year, according to Coffee and Cocoa Council director Yves Brahima Kone. Some pod counters had estimated the crop at as much as 1.3 million tons a month ago.

Exporters expect port arrivals to strengthen in November and December as the main crop peaks, though volumes will stay below last year. Arrivals are expected to fall sharply in January and February as lower production bites. “We expect arrivals of 75,000 to 85,000 tons per week in November and December, versus 100,000 to 110,000 tons a year ago,” said the head of another European export company in Abidjan.

A third exporter forecast total arrivals of about 700,000 tons in November and December and 150,000 to 200,000 tons in January and February.

What it means for West African buyers

The cut matters for cocoa buyers and processors across West Africa because Ivory Coast is the world’s top producer. For Nigerian businesses that trade or process cocoa, the signal is tighter supply from the region’s dominant origin. The report did not give Nigerian output or price figures.