Inflation Eases to 15.39% in August, But OPS Warns Energy Costs May Reverse Gains

Nigeria's headline inflation rate eased marginally to 15.39 per cent in August 2026, down 0.04 percentage points from 15.43 per cent in July, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The figure is also a sharp moderation from 23.14 per cent recorded in August 2025.

The NBS disclosed this in its Consumer Price Index report for August 2026, released on Monday. But the Organised Private Sector says the decline is "as good as not dropping" and warns that rising energy costs and the Middle East crisis could push inflation back up.

Food Prices Rise at a Slower Pace

Despite the moderation in the annual rate, the Consumer Price Index, which measures changes in the prices of goods and services consumed by households, rose to 146.3 points in August from 145.3 points in July.

On a month-on-month basis, inflation slowed to 0.71 per cent in August from 1.57 per cent in July. The NBS said this means the rate of increase in the average price level was lower than in July.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages remained the largest contributor to annual inflation, accounting for 6.16 percentage points. Restaurants and accommodation services contributed 1.99 percentage points, transport 1.64 points, and housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 1.30 points.

Food inflation stood at 19.57 per cent year-on-year in August, compared with 25.30 per cent in the same period of 2025. On a monthly basis, food inflation slowed sharply to 1.02 per cent from 5.56 per cent in July.

The NBS attributed the moderation mainly to price changes in palm oil, carrots, pepper, onions, cassava flour, beef, yam flour, water yam, melon, fresh ginger, fresh fish, Irish potatoes, wheat grain, frozen chicken and turkey meat, among others.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices, moderated to 13.29 per cent year-on-year from 22.93 per cent in August 2025. On a monthly basis, core inflation turned negative at -0.06 per cent, compared with 0.15 per cent in July.

Urban inflation stood at 15.88 per cent year-on-year, while rural inflation was lower at 14.23 per cent, though rural prices rose faster during the month.

OPS: Energy Is the Real Threat

The Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, said the decline was too marginal to signal real improvement. He said stability in the foreign exchange market may have supported the moderation, but rising energy costs pose a major risk.

"What we have now, well, it's as good as saying that nothing much has changed. But quite frankly, from this September going forward, unless something drastically changes, I don't see inflation moderating. Because energy is at the heart of everything," Yusuf said.

He warned that rising crude oil prices and escalating disruptions in the Middle East could trigger further increases in domestic energy and consumer prices. Petrol was already selling for about N1,035 per litre in some places and above N1,400 in Abuja, he said, while diesel and gas prices were also rising.

Yusuf said the energy crisis would keep affecting transportation, production and business operations because the economy depends on petrol, diesel, gas and jet fuel. "It's a very bleak inflation outlook, you ask me," he said.

The President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria, Dr Femi Egbesola, said the 15.39 per cent rate does not reflect the pressures facing businesses and households.

"The 15.39 per cent inflation recorded in August is not reflective of the business environment. It's not reflective of the livelihood of the people. It's not reflected in the kitchen. It's not reflected in households," he said.

He warned that higher fuel prices could reverse the marginal improvement in the coming months. "Now, the price of fuel has gone up, definitely in a few weeks' time. I'm sure the next inflation report will also show an upward trend, because fuel or petroleum products is one of the major drivers of inflation," Egbesola said.

He urged the government to stop celebrating falling inflation figures without ensuring the gains reach ordinary Nigerians, calling for revenue to be channelled into education, healthcare, electricity, roads and compressed natural gas infrastructure.

"What is the value of an inflation that is decreasing and the companies, manufacturers are dying? What is the value when households cannot feed three square meals a day?" he asked.

What It Means

The softer month-on-month numbers offer little relief on the shelf. With petrol above N1,400 per litre in Abuja and diesel and gas climbing, transport and production costs will keep feeding into market prices, and the next CPI reading could reflect that.