Global shocks hit Naira harder than Rand, CBN study finds
By Aboki Forex —
A Central Bank of Nigeria study has found that global economic shocks hit Nigeria's currency and inflation harder than South Africa's. Victor Ugbem Oboh, director of the monetary policy department at the CBN, presented the findings at the 7th Africa Emerging Markets Forum in Abuja.
Naira depreciates more sharply than Rand
“What the numbers suggest to us is that in Nigeria, the impact recorded an immediate and larger depreciation in the local currency than what we saw in South Africa,” Oboh said. The study examined how major global shocks — including the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, supply-chain disruptions, commodity price swings, geopolitical tensions and US Federal Reserve monetary policy changes — transmitted into both economies.
The research used global vector autoregression and local projection models to trace how international shocks affect domestic economies. It focused on Nigeria and South Africa because they are among Africa's largest economies but have different economic structures, monetary policy frameworks and levels of market development.
Structural differences explain the gap
South Africa operates a formal inflation-targeting regime with a long-established floating exchange-rate system. Nigeria is still transitioning its monetary framework and recently unified its foreign exchange market. South Africa also has deeper financial markets, while Nigeria remains more exposed to oil price shocks, food import pressures and currency volatility.
“If you have a bigger market, you have a bigger reserve level, you have a stronger base and buffers, then that determines how far you will be able to respond to those shocks and absorb those shocks in terms of exchange rate,” Oboh said.
US rate hikes hit Nigeria's inflation harder
The study found that US monetary policy tightening had a stronger impact on Nigeria's inflation compared with South Africa. Both countries initially saw inflation decline after a US policy shock, before inflation later increased. But the rise was “much sharper” in Nigeria before gradually declining.
“The inflationary effect of US monetary policy tightening is not persistent in both economies. However, the impact and severity is sharper and higher in Nigeria,” Oboh said.
Oboh said recurring global disruptions had become a permanent feature of the economic environment. “Shocks seem to have come to stay, because while you are dealing with one, another one occurs. So it is no longer about whether shocks will occur or not. The question now is how to deal with it.”
Policymakers must look beyond interest rates
The findings show that policymakers should look beyond interest-rate adjustments when responding to external shocks. Oboh stressed the importance of policy credibility and structural reforms. According to the study, external shocks accounted for a significant share of inflation movements in both Nigeria and South Africa, reinforcing the need for credible policies that shape expectations among households and businesses.
“Monetary policy framework alone is not enough. It depends on how much you are able to supplement it with reforms,” Oboh said. He added that stronger institutions, improved market structures and credible policies would determine how effectively African economies respond to future external shocks.
For the naira, the message is clear: without deeper reserves, more liquid markets and sustained structural reforms, Nigeria will remain more vulnerable than peers like South Africa to the next global shock.