Global goods trade hits $13.7 trillion as AI, EV demand lifts shipments

Global goods trade rose to about US$13.7 trillion in the first half of 2026, up 12.5% from the same period in 2025. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), in its report titled “Global trade continues to expand amid rising price pressures”, said higher prices supported part of the increase.

Global services trade grew at a slower pace, rising 10.5% year on year. The strong goods trade performance was driven by robust activity in East Asia and firm demand for AI and electric vehicle related products, including critical minerals and semiconductors.

East Asia powers the expansion

UNCTAD said developing economies in East Asia played a major role in the first half expansion. Critical minerals recorded 38% growth in the first quarter, semiconductors rose 25%, batteries grew 15%, ICT goods went up 14% and electric cars advanced 11%.

Trade by developing economies and South-South trade recorded double-digit growth over the past 12 months when East Asian economies were included. In the first quarter, East Asian developing economies posted double-digit quarterly growth, while other Asian subregions saw negative growth. Excluding East Asia, developing economies as a group contracted in the first quarter, largely due to reduced imports and exports from the Middle East and South Asia.

Developed economies kept a similar pace of positive quarterly trade growth as in the previous quarter. Intra-regional trade expanded in most regions, though it remained weak in South America. Over the past 12 months, import growth was particularly strong in Africa, East Asia and Europe, with those regions also recording robust intra-regional trade.

Non-tariff measures hit poor countries

In May, UNCTAD raised concerns that least developed countries (LDCs) are losing about 10% of their exports to G20 economies because they cannot comply with increasingly complex non-tariff measures (NTMs). According to UNCTAD, while global attention has focused on tariff tensions after the 2025 trade disruptions, NTMs have become the dominant driver of trade costs for most economies, especially developing countries.

In its April 2026 edition, the agency said global trade recorded a notable upswing in 2025, driven largely by strong manufacturing activity, which expanded by 11%. Agricultural trade also grew, supported by higher activity in cereals, animal products, coffee, tea and spices.

Nigeria’s FDI position weakens

UNCTAD earlier said global foreign direct investment (FDI) increased by 6% to $1.6 trillion in 2025, up from $1.5 trillion in 2024. High-income economies drove much of the increase.

Nigeria’s FDI declined sharply in the first quarter of 2026, falling to $135.08 million from $357.80 million in the fourth quarter of 2025. The drop came even as Nigeria attracted total capital inflows of $10.37 billion during the quarter, driven largely by portfolio investments and other short-term financial instruments.

For Nigeria, the global trade picture shows growing demand for tech linked goods, but the country’s weak FDI numbers point to continued reliance on short-term capital. That leaves the naira more exposed to sudden shifts in investor sentiment.