FX Inflows Hit $32.4bn in Q1 2026 as Autonomous Sources Drive Liquidity

Nigeria’s foreign exchange inflows rose to $32.4 billion in the first quarter of 2026, with autonomous sources providing all of the quarterly increase. Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s latest Quarterly Statistical Bulletin showed total FX inflows rose 13 per cent quarter-on-quarter and 11 per cent year-on-year by the end of Q1 2026.

The stronger inflows, combined with mixed outflow movements, lifted Nigeria’s net external FX position. Total FX outflows stood at $11.1 billion, up 11 per cent q/q but down 21 per cent from Q1 2025. Net FX inflow came to $21.3 billion, up 15 per cent q/q and about 41 per cent y/y.

Autonomous inflows lead the gain

Autonomous sources accounted for the entire quarterly rise in total FX inflows. Inflows through autonomous channels climbed 24 per cent q/q to $22.2 billion, or about 68 per cent of total FX inflows in the quarter.

CBN inflows moved the other way. They fell 4 per cent q/q to $10.2 billion, though this was still 23 per cent higher than the level in Q1 2025. The $22.2 billion from autonomous sources more than offset a $430 million decline in inflows through the CBN, giving the main boost to aggregate FX liquidity.

Outflows and net positions

On the outflow side, CBN transactions rose 5 per cent q/q to $7.4 billion, about 67 per cent of total FX outflows. Autonomous outflows increased more sharply, up 28 per cent q/q and 7 per cent y/y to $3.6 billion from $2.8 billion in the preceding quarter.

Even with higher autonomous outflows, the rise in autonomous inflows pushed net autonomous FX flows up 23 per cent q/q to $18.6 billion. Net FX flows through the CBN moderated by 21 per cent to $2.8 billion.

The data points to a bigger role for market-based and private-sector channels in supporting Nigeria’s external liquidity, at a time when monetary conditions remained relatively restrictive. Analysts have linked the strength of FX inflows partly to attractive carry-trade opportunities created by Nigeria’s elevated interest rates. The high returns on naira assets helped sustain foreign portfolio interest and supported foreign currency supply into the domestic market.

Naira support and policy risk

The stronger FX liquidity also supported the naira during the quarter. The domestic currency appreciated by approximately 4.6 per cent q/q to N1,384.01/$.

But the outlook for FX liquidity could face fresh pressure after the CBN’s latest monetary policy adjustment. The Monetary Policy Committee recently cut the Monetary Policy Rate by 350 basis points to 23 per cent. The reduction is expected to ease domestic financing conditions, but narrower interest-rate differentials could reduce the relative attractiveness of naira-denominated assets to offshore investors.

For Nigerian businesses and consumers, the Q1 numbers show external liquidity is being driven less by the CBN and more by autonomous flows. If that support holds, it could help keep FX supply steady. If carry-trade interest fades after the rate cut, the naira could face renewed pressure.