Subsidy return could push naira to N4,000/$, Oyedele warns

Taiwo Oyedele has warned that returning to petrol subsidy could push the naira to N3,000, N3,500 or even N4,000 per dollar. He said the move could trigger capital flight and undermine investor confidence.

Oyedele, described as Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, spoke at a press briefing of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand, on Monday.

Investors are watching the reform direction

He said investors had repeatedly questioned whether the government would abandon its reforms ahead of the next election cycle. That question, he said, is central to how markets price Nigerian assets.

Oyedele said his meetings had led him to conclude that markets have largely written off the opposition. He said: “In all the meetings I have had, I came to a conclusion that the markets, including the domestic market, which you can read from the capital market, and the international market, have largely written off the opposition in Nigeria as being unserious.”

Why subsidy matters for the naira

The warning links exchange-rate stability to the government’s subsidy stance. A return to subsidy, Oyedele said, would send a signal that reforms could be reversed, with capital flight and weaker investor confidence following.

That chain matters for the naira. It also matters for consumers and businesses that depend on imported goods and fuel, because a weaker currency raises costs across the economy.

Political risk ahead of elections

Oyedele’s comments point to the political pressure around fuel pricing. Investors are already testing whether the government will hold its reform line as the next election cycle approaches.

Separately, the Presidency disputed Makinde’s N9tn NLNG dividend claim, an issue reviewed in So This Happened (EP 436).