FMDA projects N2.499trn money-market inflows as liquidity drops 23.68%

Nigeria’s money market is expected to receive about N2.499 trillion in inflows in the week beginning October 12, 2026, the Financial Markets Dealers Association (FMDA) has projected. The bulk of that cash will come from maturing Open Market Operations (OMO) bills, even as banking system liquidity fell 23.68%.

The FMDA weekly report dated October 12, 2026, which reviewed developments through October 9, put the inflow estimate 13.1% below the N2.877 trillion projected for the preceding week. Banking system liquidity dropped to N3.71 trillion from about N4.86 trillion.

OMO maturities drive inflows

OMO maturities are expected to provide N2.409 trillion, about 96.4% of the projected N2.499 trillion total. That is higher than N2.168 trillion in OMO maturities in the preceding week.

The higher OMO maturities were offset by a sharp fall in Treasury bill maturities. Treasury bill maturities are projected at N80.84 billion, compared with N705.73 billion in the previous week. Corporate bond coupon payments are seen at N4.33 billion, up from N2.82 billion. Commercial paper maturities are projected at N4.49 billion, against N0.13 billion previously. The previous week included N10.09 billion in corporate bond maturities, while no such maturities are projected for this week.

FMDA said the N2.499 trillion projection represents potential gross liquidity injections from scheduled maturities and payments, not a forecast of the amount that will remain in the banking system.

CBN auctions drain liquidity

Banking system liquidity fell 23.68% to N3.71 trillion in the week ended October 9, from about N4.86 trillion in the preceding week. That is a reduction of about N1.15 trillion.

The decline came as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) sold N3.31 trillion in OMO instruments against N2.17 trillion in maturities, implying net absorption of about N1.14 trillion. The Debt Management Office allotted N968.47 billion in Treasury bills against N705.73 billion in maturities, implying net absorption of N262.74 billion. Together, the operations imply about N1.40 trillion in net withdrawals, though this does not equal the reported N1.15 trillion decline in overall system liquidity.

Average Treasury bill yield increased 30 basis points to 18.16%. Average Federal Government bond yield rose about 25 basis points to 16.06%.

Outlook depends on CBN

The outlook for the week beginning October 12 will depend largely on how the CBN manages the N2.409 trillion in expected OMO maturities. Fresh OMO auctions could absorb part of the funds, limiting the impact on banking system liquidity and short-term interest rates.

FMDA had earlier projected total money-market inflows of N13.25 trillion for October, down 14.82% from N15.556 trillion in September. October OMO maturities were projected at N9.051 trillion, the largest component of the monthly inflow forecast. CBN OMO sales reached N17.51 trillion in September.

If the CBN absorbs most of the expected maturities through fresh auctions, funding conditions could remain tight and short-term yields elevated. If a larger proportion of the inflows remains within the banking system, liquidity conditions could improve and short-term yields may ease. The projected N2.499 trillion inflow provides potential liquidity support, but the actual effect will depend on subsequent monetary operations and other market flows.