Nigeria's Inflation Eases to 15.39% But Business Owners Say Nothing Has Changed

Nigeria's headline inflation rate eased marginally to 15.39 per cent in August 2026, down 0.04 percentage points from 15.43 per cent in July, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The figure is far lower than the 23.14 per cent recorded in August 2025, but the Organised Private Sector says the drop is too small to matter.

The NBS released its Consumer Price Index report for August 2026 on Monday. "In August 2026, the headline inflation rate stood at 15.39 per cent, down from 15.43 per cent in July 2026 and stood at 23.14 per cent in the same month of the preceding year (August 2025)," the report read.

Prices still climbing

Despite the annual moderation, the Consumer Price Index rose to 146.3 points in August from 145.3 points in July. On a month-on-month basis, inflation slowed to 0.71 per cent from 1.57 per cent in July.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages remained the biggest driver of annual inflation, contributing 6.16 percentage points. Restaurants and accommodation services added 1.99 percentage points, transport 1.64 points, and housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 1.30 points.

Food inflation stood at 19.57 per cent year-on-year in August, against 25.30 per cent in August 2025. Month-on-month, food inflation fell sharply to 1.02 per cent from 5.56 per cent in July. The NBS attributed the slowdown to changes in the average prices of palm oil, carrots, pepper, onions, cassava flour, beef, yam flour, water yam, melon, fresh ginger, fresh fish, Irish potatoes, wheat grain, frozen chicken and turkey meat.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices, moderated to 13.29 per cent year-on-year from 22.93 per cent in August 2025. On a monthly basis, core inflation turned negative at -0.06 per cent, compared with 0.15 per cent in July. Urban inflation was 15.88 per cent year-on-year, while rural inflation stood at 14.23 per cent, though rural prices rose faster during the month.

Energy is the threat

The Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, said the decline was too marginal to signal real relief. He noted that stability in the foreign exchange market may have helped, but warned that energy costs pose a major risk.

"What we have now, well, it's as good as saying that nothing much has changed. But quite frankly, from this September going forward, unless something drastically changes, I don't see inflation moderating. Because energy is at the heart of everything," Yusuf said.

He said petrol was selling for about N1,035 per litre in some places and above N1,400 in Abuja, with diesel and gas prices also rising. He warned that higher crude oil prices and disruptions in the Middle East could push domestic energy and consumer prices further up.

"Transportation, production, operation. And it goes across everything. Jet fuel, petrol, diesel, gas. It goes across. So, it's a very bleak inflation outlook, you ask me," he said.

Businesses and households

The President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria, Dr Femi Egbesola, said the 15.39 per cent figure does not reflect the reality on the ground.

"The 15.39 per cent inflation recorded in August is not reflective of the business environment. It's not reflective of the livelihood of the people. It's not reflected in the kitchen. It's not reflected in households," he said.

Egbesola warned that rising fuel prices could reverse the marginal gain in the coming months. "Now, the price of fuel has gone up, definitely in a few weeks' time. I'm sure the next inflation report will also show an upward trend, because fuel or petroleum products is one of the major drivers of inflation," he said.

He asked the government to stop celebrating falling inflation figures without ensuring the gains reach ordinary Nigerians. "What is the value of an inflation that is decreasing and the companies, manufacturers are dying? What is the value when households cannot feed three square meals a day?"

He called for government revenue to be redirected into education, healthcare, electricity, roads and compressed natural gas infrastructure to help businesses and households withstand rising petroleum prices.

For Nigerian consumers, the numbers offer little comfort. Prices are still rising, just more slowly. With petrol above N1,000 per litre in several states and energy costs climbing, the pressure on transport, production and food prices is unlikely to ease soon.