Economic stability alone won't lift living standards, FirstBank warns

FirstBank of Nigeria says the country's economy has moved past the stage of restoring macroeconomic stability. The new focus must be turning recent gains into stronger private investment, higher productivity and broader improvements in living standards.

The bank said this in its Mid-Year Economic & Market Outlook 2026, titled "Reading the Signals | The Next Half", published in July 2026. Its Economic Research team said two years of policy adjustments have helped stabilise key indicators, supported by improved foreign exchange market conditions, stronger external reserves and rising investor confidence.

Key numbers from the report

External reserves climbed to $51.46 billion as of June 30, 2026. Liquidity in the official foreign exchange market also improved significantly, according to the report.

FirstBank argues that the economic conversation is shifting from stabilisation to growth and productivity. "Following two years of significant policy adjustment, the macroeconomic environment has become more stable. However, the central question is no longer the restoration of macroeconomic stability, but the extent to which that stability begins to strengthen productive economic activity, stimulate private investment and deliver broader improvements across the real economy," the bank said.

Refining gains reshape trade

The report highlights major progress in oil and gas, especially refining. Refined petroleum exports rose by 20.3% quarter-on-quarter to $2.37 billion in the first quarter of 2026. Imports of refined petroleum products plunged by 87.5% to $310 million from $2.48 billion in the previous quarter.

This helped push Nigeria's goods account surplus to $5.95 billion. FirstBank said domestic refining capacity is beginning to alter Nigeria's trade structure and reduce a longstanding source of foreign exchange demand. The 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Refinery played a key role in supporting exports of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel across Africa and into Europe during the first half of the year, particularly amid supply disruptions linked to tensions involving Iran.

Outlook for H2 2026

Looking ahead, FirstBank said sustaining foreign exchange inflows, improving export performance and attracting long-term capital will be critical to maintaining momentum. The success of reforms will increasingly be measured by their ability to drive private-sector investment, improve productivity, expand domestic value addition and enhance household welfare.

"Macroeconomic stabilisation is the foundation, but our collective focus must now shift to strengthening productive activity, accelerating private investment and delivering broad-based improvements that create lasting prosperity for Nigerians," the bank said.

Capital importation rose to $10.37 billion in the first quarter of 2026, an increase of 83.8% year-on-year, according to earlier Nairametrics analysis.

For Nigerian businesses and households, the message is clear: stability alone is not enough. The second half of 2026 will be judged by how effectively recent gains are converted into investment, jobs and higher living standards.