EMT sets up committee to unify Nigeria's economic projections
By Aboki Forex —
The Federal Government has moved to end discrepancies in economic figures used by its agencies. The Economic Management Team (EMT) has approved a new inter-agency committee to harmonise projections for crude oil prices and production, exchange rates, inflation and non-oil revenue.
The decision was taken at the EMT meeting in Abuja on Monday. The team also reviewed Nigeria's economic performance and approved measures to strengthen coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities.
Why the committee was created
The move followed a joint budget retreat and technical review which found that differences in assumptions used by government agencies had contributed to budget under-performance. The committee will also examine inconsistencies in how important economic indicators are calculated and presented by government agencies.
The government believes one agreed set of assumptions will make the budget more realistic. It should reduce major differences between projected and actual revenue, expenditure and economic performance.
Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, said the decision was aimed at making government planning more reliable.
“Today's decisions tighten the link between the numbers we plan with and the actual outturns,” Oyedele said. He added that using common assumptions across fiscal and monetary authorities would mean “fewer surprises in the budget and more credible planning for investors and all Nigerians.”
Agriculture and financing measures
The EMT reviewed measures to increase agriculture's contribution to economic growth. The focus is on reducing post-harvest losses, expanding processing, increasing mechanisation and improving compliance with export standards.
The government wants public funding for agriculture to reach farmers at the right time, especially before planting seasons. It plans to recapitalise the Bank of Agriculture and establish a new credit facility for smallholder farmers.
The government is targeting an increase in agriculture's share of private-sector credit to about 10 per cent by 2030.
Changes to EMT structure
The EMT is the Federal Government's main platform for coordinating economic policies. Core members include Vice President Kashim Shettima, who chairs the team; Oyedele; Atiku Bagudu, Minister of Budget and National Planning; Yemi Cardoso, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria; and Zacch Adedeji, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of the Nigeria Revenue Service.
Under a revised mandate, the EMT will now have a wider role in reviewing macroeconomic performance, improving fiscal and monetary coordination, monitoring the Renewed Hope Agenda and assessing the Federal Government's financing needs.
The team agreed to meet every month. Each meeting will include at least two strategic reviews of important sectors of the economy.
The Federal Ministry of Finance will now coordinate national economic data. Agencies will still produce statistics in their areas, but the Finance Ministry will coordinate the data before major figures are released publicly. This is expected to reduce conflicting figures on the same indicator.
Stronger economic indicators
Nigeria's real GDP grew by 4.43 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026. The EMT said this was the strongest quarterly growth since the third quarter of 2024.
The economy recorded about 17 per cent growth in US dollar terms during the first half of 2026. External reserves rose to more than $54 billion in early September, the highest in almost 18 years and above the government's official projection for 2026.
The naira has strengthened to its strongest level in about two years, trading in the N1,300s to the dollar in early September.
Nigeria is also set to return to the FTSE Russell Frontier Market index after about three years. The new classification takes effect on September 21, 2026.
The EMT was informed that Nigeria's public debt remains below 40 per cent of GDP. Moody's has changed the country's sovereign credit outlook.
For businesses and investors, the improvement in reserves and the stronger naira could reduce pressure on the foreign exchange market. A single set of economic assumptions also gives a clearer basis for budget planning and private sector decisions.