Naira to Hit N1,400/$ in H2 2026, Coronation Research Projects
By Aboki Forex —
Coronation Research has projected the naira will trade at N1,400 against the dollar in the second half of 2026. The local currency is expected to depreciate gradually through the end of the year.
The projection was made by Adeyemi Temilola, Head of Macroresearch at Coronation Research, during the firm's H1 2026 Capital Market Review and Outlook for H2 2026 in Lagos.
Naira Beats Forecast in H1
Temilola said the naira beat Coronation's own forecast of N1,382 per dollar in H1 2026, closing at an average of N1,365 against the dollar. She attributed the outperformance to sustained foreign portfolio inflows into Open Market Operation (OMO) bills and fixed-income securities, improved foreign exchange liquidity, continued Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) interventions, and elevated crude prices from the Hormuz shock offsetting weaker production volumes.
“The principal deviations — a more cautious MPC and a stronger naira — both stemmed from the same source: Nigeria’s improved yield differential attracted record portfolio inflows ($10.37billion in Q1, +83.8per cent y/y), giving the CBN room to prioritise credibility over speed while still delivering currency stability,” she explained.
She noted that global economic growth, inflation, and crude oil prices form the external backdrop shaping H2 2026.
Swing Factors for H2
Temilola highlighted six swing factors that will shape H2 2026. These include whether the Hormuz situation fully reopens or escalates, which is the single biggest swing factor for oil revenue, foreign exchange, and reserves. She also pointed to S&P's upgrade of Nigeria to B in May, and whether Fitch and Moody's follow depends on fiscal and FAB/TRS transparency. The 26.50 per cent Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) balances carry-trade inflows against mounting real-sector credit strain.
“Our base case assumes Brent stabilises below $80/bbl as the peace memorandum holds. If that normalises the price windfall while domestic crude output stays soft, the combined effect would pressure fiscal and foreign exchange suffers even as headline GDP keeps expanding,” she said.
Temilola stressed that Nigeria's non-oil sector, with 96 per cent growth in its fiscal and foreign exchange position, still leans on oil prices.
Opportunities and Positioning
On fixed income, she said elevated stop rates of 18.3 per cent and above on long bonds offer attractive entry points for investors able to lock in duration ahead of an eventual easing cycle. For defensive positioning, she advised front-end and short-duration instruments while sovereign supply stays heavy through Q3.
“Watch the Q3 N8.60 trillion issuance calendar for the best entry windows,” she said.
On the real economy, Temilola said naira stability through H1 2026 supports import-dependent and naira-denominated positioning. But with the H2 drift toward N1,400 per dollar, she argued for hedged foreign exchange exposure into the fourth quarter of 2026.
“Non-oil resilience (96.08per cent of GDP) favours ICT, trade, agriculture and select industrial names over oil-linked plays. High-for-longer rates remain a headwind for credit-intensive sectors and private investment recovery,” she said.
For Nigerian businesses and importers, the projected gradual depreciation means hedging FX exposure in the coming months could reduce the risk of a weaker naira in Q4 2026.