CBN reforms strengthening naira, stabilising markets, says United Capital

United Capital Plc says the Central Bank of Nigeria's ongoing economic reforms are successfully reshaping the Nigerian economy and paving the way for sustained market stability and naira appreciation. Group Chief Executive Officer Peter Ashade spoke on Wednesday at the United Capital Investor Relations Connect in Lagos, themed Decoding Performance: Insights into United Capital's Growth Drivers and Outlook.

Ashade told stakeholders that policy adjustments targeting structural imbalances are opening opportunities across economic sectors. He pointed to recent global recognition of Nigerian assets.

Nigeria's stock market leading the world

“A few weeks ago, they ranked Nigeria as the best-performing stock market in the entire world in dollar terms, so people are taking positions,” Ashade said. “What are you doing? I look for opportunities within the problems, and I take a position; that is what I think every one of us should do.”

United Capital's Chief Economist, Ayodele Akinwunmi, said easing foreign exchange pressure as local processing capacity grows will be a major catalyst. He gave a specific naira outlook.

“Our outlook is saying N1,360 to a dollar to end the year, which means that year-on-year we are going to have an appreciation of the naira against the dollar,” Akinwunmi said. He explained that refined petroleum products used to account for about 25 to 30 per cent of foreign exchange utilisation. With local refining capacity now available, that demand has been removed.

“By the law of demand and supply, lower demand for foreign exchange means the value of the naira will appreciate,” he added.

Structural reforms and job creation

Akinwunmi also stressed that government restrictions on raw material exports present major value-creation opportunities. He said Nigerians should be optimistic because of structural policy changes.

“The government says that we should not be exporting raw materials, and that is a huge opportunity for us to add value to the things that we produce here in Nigeria. When we export crude, we are exporting jobs, so the fact that the government is going to be very deliberate about this means that our children who are leaving university will get jobs,” he asserted.

On the group's Pan-African expansion strategy, Akinwunmi acknowledged the risks of regional growth but expressed confidence in the firm's risk management framework. “The risks of expanding across Africa are real. As students of financial management know, where there is risk, there is return. What has helped us thus far is focusing on the inherent opportunities within the challenges rather than just the obstacles. We carefully review institutions that fail when moving from one country to another, and that is why we rely heavily on our research unit to continuously monitor market dynamics,” he said.

Dividend, growth pillars and half-year results

Group Chief Finance Officer Shedrack Onakpoma reaffirmed the group's commitment to strategic execution and long-term shareholder value. He cited the decision to declare a 30 kobo per share interim dividend as part of a broader reinvestment strategy.

“We remain disciplined in executing our strategic priorities, navigating evolving operating environments, and expanding our African footprint to capture long-term value for all stakeholders,” Onakpoma said. “Our strategic decision to retain a portion of profits, such as declaring a 30 kobo per share interim dividend, is aimed at reinvesting in high-return market opportunities. By retaining capital now to fund strategic expansion, we maximise returns and drive long-term value creation for shareholders by the end of the year.”

Managing Director and CEO of United Capital Asset Management Limited, Odiri Oginni, outlined four pillars shaping the institution's trajectory: building new products and distribution, standing the test of time across market cycles, investing in people, and upholding strong governance. She said trust is the hallmark of any financial institution.

“If people don't trust you, they will not bring their money or their business to you, so we take governance very seriously and will continue to build infrastructure that strengthens our risk management and governance architecture,” Oginni explained.

United Capital Plc posted an 80 per cent year-on-year growth in profit before tax to N24.78bn for the half-year ended 30 June 2026, compared to N13.79bn in the same period of 2025. Gross earnings expanded 58 per cent to N37.49bn from N23.76bn. Profit after tax rose 77 per cent to N21.10bn from N11.89bn, while annualised earnings per share climbed 77 per cent to 234 kobo.

For the naira, the key signal from United Capital is clear: local refining and value-added processing should keep reducing forex demand, supporting the currency's appreciation through year-end.