Business confidence to hit 36.1 points by February 2027, CBN survey projects
By Aboki Forex —
Business confidence among formal-sector enterprises is expected to strengthen over the next six months, reaching 36.1 index points by February 2027. The projection comes from the Central Bank of Nigeria's Business Expectation Survey, which showed the Business Confidence Index rising to 14.8 points in August 2026 from 5.7 points in July.
Respondents tied the improved sentiment mainly to increased demand at 25.9%, economic diversification at 18.3% and the monetary policy stance at 14.2%. Confidence is projected to climb to 23.6 points in September 2026 and 30.1 points in November before hitting 36.1 points in February 2027.
Sector gains spread across the board
The August improvement cut across major sectors. Industry recorded the strongest monthly rise, from 11.5 points in July to 17.1 points in August. Services moved from 3.6 to 13.3 points, while agriculture strengthened from 3.4 to 13.9 points. The six-month outlook stayed positive across all three sectors.
At subsector level, Electricity, Gas and Water Supply posted the highest optimism on current operations with an index of 50.0 points. Businesses reported their strongest expectations for the Volume of Total Orders at 20.3 points, followed by the Volume of Business Activity index at 19.7 points. Construction recorded the highest expansion outlook at 73.9 index points.
Employment expectations for September remained subdued. Electricity, Gas and Water Supply was the only sector with a neutral hiring outlook.
Taxation, insecurity top constraints
Businesses still flagged several operational headaches. High or multiple taxation ranked as the biggest constraint in August at 67.8 points, followed by insecurity at 66.9 points and high interest rates at 63.5 points. High bank charges came in at 61.1 points and competition at 59.5 points.
Unclear economic laws and an unfavourable economic climate both stood at 57.7 points. Unfavourable political conditions and poor infrastructure recorded 56.3 and 55.7 points respectively.
On the currency, respondents expect the naira to appreciate gradually against the US dollar. The exchange-rate outlook index was 8.5 points for August, rising to 15.1 points for September, 23.5 points over three months and 31.8 points over six months. Borrowing-rate indices stayed within the 18 to 19 point range across outlook periods, pointing to only marginal easing in financing costs.
Average capacity utilisation was largely flat, edging down from 55.9% in July to 55.8% in August. Mining and Quarrying recorded the highest capacity utilisation during the period.
Wider recovery signals
The Nigerian Economic Summit Group earlier said the business environment expanded in August 2026, with the composite Current Business Performance Index rising to 112.7 points from 108.6 points in July, the highest since February 2026. Stanbic IBTC Bank's Purchasing Managers' Index report showed Nigeria's private sector posted its strongest improvement in business conditions in 29 months in August 2026.
Nigeria's Composite PMI rose to 52.7 points from 51.1 points in July, marking a third straight month of expansion. GDP grew 4.43% year-on-year in real terms in the second quarter of 2026, up from 4.23% in the same quarter of 2025, a 0.20 percentage-point improvement. Agriculture and services drove the growth, while industrial sector growth slowed sharply year on year.