Bonny Light approaches $95 as geopolitical tensions rattle oil markets
By Aboki Forex —
Bonny Light, Nigeria's benchmark crude, is trading near the $95 per barrel mark as Middle East tensions keep the Strait of Hormuz in focus. Brent crude prices have risen 6.5%, while European gas prices are up just under 9% amid the uncertainty.
The price moves come as markets weigh the risk of supply disruption against signs of weaker global demand. An agreement between Iran and Oman on transit rules for the Strait of Hormuz may be within reach, but larger geopolitical issues remain unresolved.
Nigerian crude holds its edge
Nigerian crude grades, including Bonny Light, Forcados and Escravos, are priced against dated Brent. These light sweet crudes remain in high demand in Asia and Europe, and have been outperforming competing light sweet barrels from the Americas because of their lower sulfur content.
Recent trading has been volatile, with prices swinging from the low $80s to the mid $90s per barrel. But macroeconomic factors, particularly China's slowdown and ongoing global stock adjustments, are expected to restrain any sustained rally, even with the geopolitical risk premium.
Nigeria maintained production close to its OPEC quota floor of 1.5 million barrels per day last month. Average output was between 1.505 million and 1.546 million barrels per day, down roughly 2.3% to 4% from the previous month, ending a period of consecutive growth. The decline was due to technical problems, notably severe drops at ExxonMobil's Erha and Akpo fields.
Including condensate production of about 170,000 barrels per day, total hydrocarbon output works out to around 1.67 million barrels per day.
Traders watch Iran and global demand
Market attention is fixed on Iran. Oil prices could ease if the Strait of Hormuz is sustainably reopened, but the European gas market is still expected to remain tight.
The International Energy Agency and OPEC have both cut their 2023 demand forecasts by 200,000 barrels per day. The IEA sees global demand falling 1.6 million barrels per day, while OPEC still projects a surge of 580,000 barrels per day. Outside OPEC+, demand is expected to rise by 690,000 barrels per day, according to the IEA. Total supply could fall by 4.3 million barrels per day, pointing to tighter market conditions ahead.
The IEA projects a 1.8 million barrel per day deficit in external oil supply in the third quarter, one million barrels per day lower than previously estimated. Traders are also watching China's industrial production figures due next Monday for clues on its crude processing capacity in July. China's reduced refinery demand has helped ease global market tightness recently.
For Nigeria, a sustained rally above $90 strengthens oil revenue and supports the naira. But weaker Chinese demand and large global stockpiles could cap gains, so the upside for the local currency may remain limited.