Oil majors hoard windfall as $100 crude tests spending discipline

The world’s largest oil companies are holding back on spending after posting their third-highest quarterly earnings on record, even as crude prices stay above $100 for much of 2026. ExxonMobil Holdings Corp. and Chevron Corp. are stockpiling cash, BP Plc is paying down debt and other liabilities, while Shell Plc and TotalEnergies SE promise caution on future investments.

The restraint follows heavy losses from past booms. The five Western oil majors wrote down about $180 billion in assets from 2010 to 2020 after spending on megaprojects when crude was high and prices later fell.

Shell and ExxonMobil pledge discipline

Shell Chief Executive Officer Wael Sawan said the company will not let cash burn a hole in its pocket. "We will be disciplined. We will not allow the surplus cash to burn a hole through our pockets," he said. "That is the flaw that we have seen historically in our sector and in our company. And this time, we have learned our lesson."

ExxonMobil Chief Financial Officer Neil Hansen said the company chose not to raise share buybacks despite surging profits. "We're not going to ride the wave of the cycle," he said. "We're not going to overextend during a temporary market disruption." Disruption from the US war with Iran has pushed oil prices above $100 during much of 2026. A global squeeze on refining capacity has also boosted earnings and stock prices. BP has rallied 45% this year, ExxonMobil is up 56% and Chevron 55%. Those three shares failed to keep pace with the 2.4% gain in oil prices on Friday, partly because of the lack of additional buybacks.

Debt falls as buybacks slow

The five supermajors now carry about $276 billion of debt combined, almost 30% less than at the end of 2020. "Discipline is what we're looking for," said Marcus McGregor, managing director of commodities research at Conning, which manages about $191 billion in assets. "Just stay the course," he said. "Don't be too reactionary and really just protect the balance sheet."

Chevron reduced its buyback in the third quarter to $2.5 billion, the low end of its guided range, despite posting the fourth-highest profits in its history. Shell increased its buyback 65%, but only within a strict investment framework that requires it to distribute a fixed percentage of cash flow to shareholders. "We manage our business in decades, not quarters," Chevron CFO Eimear Bonner said. "We certainly don't change our capital allocation or financial priorities on the back of a volatile quarter."

Deal caution and BP's balance sheet

Some investors worry about underinvestment. "We would like to see them do something that would be a little bit more additive to long-term growth," said Brian Mulberry, chief market strategist at Zacks Investment Management, which oversees about $33 billion in assets. The last time ExxonMobil and Chevron made profits this high was in 2022. A year later, both announced acquisitions worth about $60 billion apiece, for Pioneer Natural Resources Co. and Hess Corp. respectively. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth cooled talk of another megadeal. "The history books aren't full of great deals that were done at $100 oil," he said.

TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné said he prefers to buy during downturns and that the French oil major has many bolt-on growth opportunities. "We will not become procyclical because suddenly we have more cash," he said. BP is focused on strengthening its balance sheet after writing off many clean energy investments and more than $60 billion in costs from the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill, according to CEO Meg O'Neill, who was appointed earlier this year. "It's very easy to get caught up in high prices and think that's an opportunity to distribute cash," she said. BP still carries "more debt and more leverage than we really can afford in a low-price scenario."

For Nigeria, the restraint among major oil companies matters because lower reinvestment can tighten future supplies and keep crude prices firm. That affects fuel costs, government oil revenue and the naira.