What the numbers really say about poverty in Nigeria
By Aboki Forex —
When Bayo Onanuga, presidential spokesman, said recently that he did not see the level of hunger Nigerians complain about, social media erupted. Thousands of Nigerians accused him of being disconnected from reality. For many families, survival now means a daily choice between food, transport, school fees or medicine.
The controversy exposed the widening gap between official optimism and public frustration. But beyond the emotions, a bigger question remains. How poor are Nigerians today? The answer lies in the numbers, not political rhetoric.
Three years after President Bola Ahmed Tinubu took office and introduced bold economic reforms, Nigeria shows two sharply different pictures. On one hand, the government has reasons to celebrate. The removal of fuel subsidy and the liberalisation of the foreign exchange market have helped stabilise public finances. Foreign reserves have climbed above $51 billion, the highest in nearly two decades. Economic growth hit about 3.87 percent in 2025. International credit rating agencies have noted improvements in Nigeria's fiscal outlook. Officials insist the painful reforms are starting to work and the economy is turning a corner.
Yet for millions of Nigerians, those gains remain invisible. Macroeconomic indicators may be improving, but household welfare tells a different story. Figures from the International Monetary Fund paint a troubling picture. The share of Nigerians living below the national poverty line has risen steadily, from 56 percent in 2023 to 61 percent in 2024 and then 63 percent in 2025.
The IMF's 2026 Article IV Consultation also estimates that about 27 million Nigerians faced severe food insecurity. High transport costs, rising food prices and disruptions to agricultural supply chains are driving this crisis.
Behind each percentage lies a human story. Millions of families now skip meals more often than they did three years ago. Parents struggle to keep children in school. Workers spend a larger share of their salaries just to eat.